The Wire - October 30, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z October 30, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN LEBANON AS TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH. UNREST UNDERWAY IN TANZANIA. AIRSTRIKES CONTINUE IN CARIBBEAN. WHITE HOUSE PLANS TO INCREASE NUCLEAR TESTING FOLLOWING RUSSIA'S INTENSIFICATION OF SIMILAR EFFORTS.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: Overnight Israeli targeting in Lebanon continued with new strikes in the southern regions of the country. This comes after a few days of airstrikes and rising tensions in Lebanon.

Analyst Comment: Details are sketchy on all sides, however a series of events have transpired over the past few days that have deteriorated relations. On Sunday, French troops stationed in Lebanon as part of the UN observation mission shot down an Israeli drone that was harassing their position. In response to that, a different drone approached the French position and dropped a grenade near them. An Israeli tank also fired a round that landed near the French observation post, continuing a long-standing tradition in the region (The IDF will frequently shoot near an international power that they don't like, they have hit a few observation posts with tank rounds before). In addition to this, IDF bombings adjacent to UN locations in Lebanon have continued to send the message, but mostly have just increased tensions in Lebanon once again and served as a reminder that the relationship between Israel and France is not particularly great.

Tanzania: A state of civil unrest is underway nationwide following the deterioration of protests over the past few days, most of which have been prompted by recent election woes. The incumbent President excluded his main political rivals from the ballot, which prompted protests and demonstrations. These efforts have now become more widespread, and around a dozen fatalities have been reported so far during the riots.

Caribbean: Yesterday evening the Pentagon announced another strike in the region, which resulted in the sinking of one more narco-vessel in the Pacific. 4x KIA were reported as a result of the strike.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Much rhetoric has abounded following various developments in the field of nuclear weapons. Earlier this week, Russia publicly announced the successful test of their latest nuclear-powered, nuclear-capable torpedo system, which has been a class of weapons in development since the 1980's. This latest version, dubbed the "Poseidon" in the open source world, is the latest version to be publicly and successfully tested. This in turn produced much fanfare surrounding these tests, and President Trump has stated that the US intends to increase nuclear testing over the next few months; because other nations have increased their efforts, so will the United States.

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Analyst Comments: Regarding this recent rhetoric, there appears to be a "lost in translation" factor to what has been said by world leaders so far. Russia, for instance, has not stated that they intend to carry out testing of actual atomic weapons themselves. The last time Russia conducted a test of the detonation of a nuclear warhead was in 1990. China similarly conducted an underground nuclear test a little more recently, back in 1996. Russia in particular also has a slightly different "nuclear triad" than the United States. The US has bombers, submarine launched missiles, and static missile silos, all of which form the main methods for the deployment of nuclear weapons (thus the three legs of the "triad").

Russia has a different, more diverse view of nuclear deterrence. They have bombers (same as us), submarine launched missiles (again, same as us), some static silos, a lot of mobile launchers to include some train-based options, and now entering more widespread operational use, nuclear torpedos to supplement their very substantial submarine force. While it may seem new to some, many of the main weapons systems that they have been working on for a long time are nuclear-powered torpedos, that also carry nuclear warheads. The United States does not use these platforms, so when politicians talk about them there's a good chance that there's going to be a bit of misunderstanding. In his address, Putin talked a lot about this "nuclear torpedo", using that term to describe the test. However, Putin was referring to the torpedo being nuclear *powered* during this test...Russia did not actually detonate a nuclear warhead, this was merely a *public* test of the torpedo featuring the developments Russia has made in miniaturizing the mini nuclear reactor powering the torpedo. The fact that the torpedo is also intended to carry a nuclear warhead as it's payload, also plays in to using the word "nuclear" in discussions of this device. There are also quite literal translation challenges; in the Russian language, it's very common for defense officials and military service members in Russia to use the word "nuclear" to describe the idea of just a "really big bomb" and not exclusively an atomic device that causes mass destruction due to the fission of radioactive materials. Usually more high-ranking officials are careful to avoid this challenge of the language barrier, but it must be mentioned anyway because of the media coverage of this growing situation, which often relies on using the word "nuclear" as many times as humanly possible in an article.

All of this is important to understand in the context of President Trump's recent comments because there are many world-changing possibilities that could result from the slightest remark. Despite the cliche, words do indeed matter, and so far nobody is really sure what Trump actually meant. Because depending on what he was trying to say, very different courses of action might be on the menu.

When President Trump stated that the US is going to do more "nuclear testing" because "other nations do it", this might demonstrate a lack of understanding of Russia's weapons. He may think that Russia detonated a nuclear device because none of the analysts preparing his briefing made the details of Russia's test abundantly clear. He would have been made aware of the Poseidon test in his daily intelligence briefing, but it's possible that he only remembered the word "nuclear" and not the bit about it being really just a test of the mini reactor. The fact that NATO probably doesn't call this torpedo the Poseidon (but likely a different secret name) doesn't help much either. These are the intricate, behind-the-scenes considerations for briefing the President on such topics. As such, this is the most likely scenario, and it wouldn't be the first time that such a misunderstanding has happened.

While this is hinging on a lot of speculation, it's important to think about because of the alternative theory: The official White House position (reinforced by the White House, not just Trump's possibly erroneous comment) is that Russia and China have ramped up their nuclear testing, so we are going to do the same...the only problem is that neither actually have ramped up their nuclear testing. Both have intensified their testing of various missile systems (along with the US), but not detonation testing. So either this is a mistake/skewing of words, or Russia and China have been blowing up nukes in secret (a possibility which at the moment seems unlikely).

Another more likely theory is that President Trump (and the subsequent statements from the White House) were just referring to a general increase in the scientific development of nuclear devices, but not specifically the detonation of a warhead. There are plenty of technologies the US can test besides just the regular ICBM launch, so it's possible that's what the US intends to do: More readiness testing, more communications exercises, and more rapid deployment drills (like the one conducted yesterday in Texas).

No matter the case, the White House's position remains rather uncertain; it's not clear as to if he means actual detonations of nuclear warheads, or the test of a weapons platform intended to carry the warhead, such as missiles or some other similar delivery vehicle. Most pundits and think tanks have been scratching their heads over this one as well, though most of which are heavily involved in politics themselves so there's incentive to just oppose Trump for the sake of it. However just going by what Trump and the White House have stated so far, it certainly seems like Trump meant testing the detonation of nuclear warheads, and not just the platforms that carry them, which is a whole other ball game. If this is what the United States intends to do, this would be a lot more substantial than Russia publicly testing a fancy, not-really-that-new torpedo.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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