Weekly Update for November 3-7, 2025

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Weekly Market Update (Oct 27–31, 2025)
Outlook for November 3-7, 3035:
Weekly Recap:
Overall Performance: S&P 500: +0.71% (gave back gains late in week).
Dow: +0.8% (hit all-time highs early in the week).
NASDAQ: +2.2% (strong tech leadership).
Small/Mid-Caps: Lagged, pulled back on rate uncertainty but did bounce on Friday.
Key Drivers:
Early Week Gains: Optimism from U.S./China trade leak rumors.
Midweek Shift: Fed cut rates 25 bps but Powell dampened December cut expectations. The 10 Year yield rose. (10-yr now 4.1%, up from under 4%).
Earnings Strong: 83% of S&P 500 beat estimates (6th straight quarter above 5-yr avg); Amazon, Google solid; Meta down 13% on AI capex.
Tech Led: NVIDIA, Apple up; Microsoft down; Comm Services lagged short-term
Technical Outlook: Weekly: Still bullish with price above rising MAs.
Daily: Sideways/choppy; internal weakness emerging. Hindenburg Omen: Initial signal and confirmed signals. Watch for multiple clusters which could be a bearish warning.
McClellan Oscillator, Bullish Percent Index, PMO showing internal weakness.
Advance/Decline line hit new high but volume/new highs fading.
Trend: Long-term positive; Daily short/intermediate non-trending (sideways strategies).
Macro Concerns: Rising Yields: 10-yr defying Fed cut, back above 4.02% which may pressure stocks if the climb continues.
Dollar: Holding firm; further strength could pressure equities.
Fed Odds (CME): Dec cut probability dropped to 63% (from near-certain).
No Gov’t Data: Shutdown delays jobs report; earnings filling void.
Sector & Breadth Notes: Leaders: Tech (94.4 scooter score).
Laggards: Staples, Real Estate, Utilities, Materials.
Rotation: Growth may be seeing a possible shift to defensives (healthcare, energy improving).
Sentiment: AAII bullishness rising but not extreme; VIX creeping up (still under20).
Looking Ahead (Nov 3–7): Seasonality: November historically strong (+1.6% avg, up 69% since 1964).
Risks: Hindenburg Omen confirmation, rising yields, dollar strength, post-Fed volatility.
Support: Earnings momentum, AI cycle, potential US/China trade progress.
Conclusion:
S&P 500 up on the week but momentum may be fading. Big picture bullish, but daily internals weakening with Hindenburg Omen flashing caution. Watch yields, dollar, and confirmation of downside follow-through. Earnings remain the anchor.

PDF of Slides:
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!