InterMarket Analysis Update for Monday November 3, 2025

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Intermarket Analysis Video Update Summary for Monday, Nov 3, 2025
Overview:
Weekly intermarket analysis to gain clues on S&P 500 (SPX) direction by examining external markets, sectors, ratios, and correlations.
Valuation: S&P overvalued (PE above 20 for years; Shiller PE 40.88 vs. historical mean 16–17; forward PE 22.8). Mega-cap 8 PE at 30.9; mid/small caps fairly priced (15.–16). Not a timing tool since overvaluation can persist until it matters; often bullish as buyers chase higher prices.
Growth vs. Value: Growth still outperforming value overall (bullish for market), but ratio drifting lower since early Aug (short-term weakness, more defensive shift).
S&P growth/value ratio sideways below 50-day MA; small/mid-cap versions stronger (recent golden cross in small caps).
Bigger picture uptrends intact; watching for rotation amid seasonal strength.
Inflation: Mixed signals: One proprietary monthly ratio (inflation/deflation) screams concern (unconfirmed elsewhere). CRB Index sideways/slight uptrend; Baltic Dry up (inflationary shipping costs); TIPS/inflation expectations stable.
Commodities (corn, wheat downtrend; aluminum, copper uptrend; oil $60s, not inflationary; lumber weak). No broad market worry.
Other Markets & Correlations: Bonds: 10-yr/2-yr yields settling lower; stocks outperforming bonds.
Metals: Gold/silver pulling back (gold best 2025 asset); copper up (economic optimism) but underperforming gold long-term. Dollar downtrend (bullish stocks); major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP) weakening vs. USD.
Key Ratios: Mega-caps/NASDAQ driving gains; equal-weight S&P lagging (narrow breadth). NASDAQ outperforming S&P; semis outperforming tech (bullish). Small caps, transports underperforming.
Global: Non-US stocks outperforming; Japan Nikkei all-time highs; emerging markets/China attempting uptrends.
Sectors (11 SPX) Strength: Tech, semis (all-time highs), discretionary (vs. staples), healthcare (golden cross/base).
Weakness: Materials (below 200-day), communication (below 50-day), financials (underperforming since May. Hidden concern?), real estate (rate-sensitive, post-Powell pullback), utilities (choppy, recent death cross vs. S&P).
Staples weak (bullish when less defensive).
Breadth & Long-Term Trends: Advance-decline lines below MAs (short-term weak post-Powell’s Dec rate-cut doubts).
NYSE/S&P monthly uptrends solid; Coppock curve down since early 2025 (lagging concern, offset by other indicators).
VIX/MOVE correlation neutral; junk bonds off highs but in an uptrend; 10-yr yield rising post-Fed cut (counterintuitive).
Positive/Negative Lists (Unchanged): Positives (dominant): Growth outperformance, tech/semi leadership, mega-caps, NASDAQ, global stocks, copper uptrend, stocks outperforming bonds/commodities, most sectors in uptrends.
Negatives (limited): Dollar downtrend, JPY vs. USD downtrend.
Bottom Line
The S&P 500 remains bullish longer-term (seasonal tailwind, growth leadership, narrow mega-cap drive) but showing short-term cracks: defensive shift, breadth weakness, financials lagging, post-Powell spook on rates. No major changes; watching for doubt-induced pullback before possible year-end rally. Overvaluation ignored for now.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Hd-wY4mnGhoCTZ-I_98Aoy_MsyawRIXd/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!