Deep Dive Update for Monday November 3, 2025

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Deep Dive Video Summary prepared for Monday, Nov 3. This weekly analysis compiles unique/long-term charts to uncover subtle market clues beyond daily/weekly updates.
Overall tone: Cautiously positive – S&P 500 near all-time highs, major trends intact, but recent weakness (post-Powell comments on uncertain Dec rate cut) introduces vulnerability and shifting character.
Big-Picture Gains+95.7% from Oct 2022 low +66.7% from Oct 2023 low +41.5% from Apr 2024 low.
Strong bull market; 9–10% pullbacks historically attract smart-money buying.
Long Term under 20 (bullish range), drifting down after slight Oct spike.
VIX/MOVE ratio rising since mid-Sep suggesting stocks are more volatile than bonds (early warning).
VVIX (vol-of-vol) easing; SKEW neutral after elevated readings.
S&P/VIX correlation neutral post-Oct drop.
Breadth & Participation
NYSE cumulative A/D line at new all-time high (broad strength).
S&P A/D shows weakness; volume A/D still above 0 (positive lean).
Percent of SPX stocks above 50-day MA slipping below 50 (intermediate caution); above200-day still above 50.
Small/mid-caps lagging large-caps; large-cap growth near highs but possibly vulnerable.
Sector & Style Rotation
Large-cap growth driving market; momentum stocks now underperforming S&P.
Growth/value ratio elevated (growth favored).
Financials & regional banks underperforming S&P since spring; KRE hit 200-DMA but holding.
Retail, homebuilders, transports softening post-Powell; semiconductors strong.
Discretionary/staples (cap-weighted) breaking out; equal-weight version lagging.
Technical Scoreboard (6 indexes): ONEQ (92.5) QQQ (90.4) S&P 500 (80.3) Small-caps (79.3) Dow (72.0) Mid-caps (42.9) and only index under 50.
Trend Structure (Moving-Average Rainbows): Short-term (10–50): Price above rising rainbow. Intermediate (50–100): Strongly up. Long-term (50–250): Intact uptrend.
Price well above 50-DMA (stretched); 20-DMA now key near-term support if the SPX declines.
Sentiment & Extremes
Ulcer Index below MA (easing fear).
Bollinger %B worked off overbought.
Connors RSI neutral; no extremes.
Global & Rates
Bond market signals no inflation/rate fears (ratios declining/sideways).
2-yr yield down (positive for stocks).
US 10-yr – German 10-yr spread neutral with USD; subtle USD strength.
Value Line Geometric negative divergence (no new high since 2021 despite index ATHs).
Key Takeaways:
Bullish backbone: VIX regime, breadth highs, long-term MAs, gains from lows.
Yellow flags: Dec rate-cut uncertainty hurting rate-sensitive (small-caps, homebuilders, regionals); momentum fade; breadth slippage; vol-of-vol shift.
Watch levels: 20-DMA, 50-DMA support; 9–10% drawdown zone for potential smart-money entry; percent above 50-day MA.
Market remains in uptrend but possible character shift so monitor for confirmation of weakness or quick reversal.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EuBn5ME5HK_Wh7pehTaWt2wbiu61viJR/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!