Daily Update Podcast for Tuesday November 4, 2025

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Daily Market Update Summary for Monday, November 3, 2025
Market Action:
S&P 500: +0.17% to the 6850 level. Opened high above R1 (6875), set high at open, then drifted lower below daily pivot (6845) and briefly negative. Found support at 6825, rebounded to Friday’s R1 (6862), then faded into close.
Pattern: Repeated Friday’s “gap-and-drift” with strong futures, high at open, then selling. Not trending; above-average volume but fading from last week.
Mega-caps held the markets up (NVIDIA +2%, Tesla +2.6%, Amazon +4% on AI cloud news); broader market weak/drifting.
Technical Outlook
Short-Term: Positive, no trend. Above 20-MA. ADX below 20. No test of support yet.
Intermediate-term: Positive, no trend. Summation indexes negative; McClellan oscillators rolling over.
Long-Term: Positive. +12.03% above 200-SMA (vulnerable; above 10% often precedes larger pullbacks).
Confirmed Hindenburg Omen (2nd spike w/ 1-day lag); clusters historically precede weakness (e.g., 2020, 2021).
Stochastics: Only momentum still positive but weakening.
Growth vs. Value: Growth outperforming (new highs in ratio); small/mid-cap growth strong but S&P index follow-through lacking.
Sentiment & Breadth:
Improving but still negative: 44 (from 35).
Option sentiment: Bullish call skew surged to 20% with speculative bets on upside via calls, not outright buying.
Breadth weakening: New highs contracting; A/D line flat on volume, declining on price; percent of stocks above 20/50/100/200 MAs all below 50% and falling.
VIX: below 20, low fear; VVIX ticking up slightly.
Fundamentals & Macro:
ISM Manufacturing: 48.7 (contraction, below exp. 49.4); S&P Global PMI 52.5 (expansion).
Fed speakers: Daly dovish (open to Dec cut); others (incl. Cook) stress “no preset path” which is less dovish than prior.
Trade: U.S.-China deal (10% tariff, 100% hike delayed 1 yr). Already priced in; no market reaction.
Rates: 10-yr at 4.11% (from under 4% a week ago); dollar near 100 (pressure on stocks if breaks higher).
Valuation: S&P 500 forward P/E 23; NASDAQ 100 30; S&P 600 15–16 (fair). Profit margins rising.
CapEx: AI hyperscalers (AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT) ramping spend sharply.
Sector & Index Snapshot:
Discretionary +0.9%. Strongest; ratio to S&P not really improving.
Tech +0.5%. Mega-caps led; semis strong.
Communication: –0.8%. Worst.
Financials: Weak. Drifting below 50-MA; ratio to S&P still falling.
Tuesday, Nov 4 Outlook:
Seasonality: Strongly positive (Nov 4 since 2002; post-election years; Nov overall).
Catalysts: JOLTS (non-govt), possible trade balance (govt shutdown may delay). No major gov’t data until shutdown ends.
Bias: Mixed but default positive. Need 1–2 strong up days to clear weakness; drifting lower risks normal profit-taking pullback, not trending. Watch Hindenburg clusters, dollar going above 100, 10-yr climbing.