Record Turnout Shocks Election Day: Sears Stumbles, Ciattarelli Squeezed, Can Cuomo Come Back?

On The Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Show, political analyst and It’s a Numbers Day podcast host Ryan Girdusky joined to break down the first wave of Election Day data.

Record Turnout Nationwide: Girdusky emphasized that turnout is unprecedented for an off-year election, rivaling presidential cycles. He said this surge reflects how cultural and political battles are mobilizing voters across the country.

Trump’s Cuomo Endorsement in NYC: The hosts pressed him on whether Donald Trump’s surprise endorsement of Andrew Cuomo could alter the New York City mayoral race. Girdusky noted it’s a gamble: it could consolidate moderates and independents against Mamdani, or it could further fracture the anti-Mamdani vote.

Mamdani’s Plurality Path: Because New York’s general election is decided by simple plurality, Zohran Mamdani doesn’t need 50%—just more votes than Cuomo and Sliwa combined. Girdusky stressed that the fractured opposition makes this scenario highly plausible.

Winsome Sears in Virginia: Girdusky pointed out that Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears is underperforming compared to other Republicans down ballot in Virginia. While GOP legislative candidates are competitive, Sears is lagging, raising concerns about her viability against Democrat Abigail Spanberger in the governor’s race.

Ciattarelli’s Headwinds in New Jersey: In New Jersey, Girdusky noted that Jack Ciattarelli faces challenges because Democratic turnout is approaching presidential-election levels. With Democrats showing up in far greater numbers than expected, Ciattarelli’s path to victory is narrower, though not impossible.

The takeaway: Girdusky framed the night as a test of five forces—historic turnout, Trump’s influence, Mamdani’s plurality advantage, Sears’ struggles in Virginia, and Ciattarelli’s turnout challenge in New Jersey. Together, they reveal the shifting political terrain heading into 2026.