Daily Update Podcast for Wednesday November 5, 2025

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Daily Market Update for Tuesday, Nov 4, 2025:
Outlook: Wednesday, Nov 5, 2025:
Recap
Market Action: S&P 500 down 1.17% on above-average volume, closing at intraday low after testing it 3 times.
Open: Gapped lower below S2 (6,790), briefly rebounded above 6,800 to S1 (6,821), then faded.
Catalysts:
Palantir earnings: Strong report and guidance but profit-taking in mega-caps and AI names.
Broader weakness: "Buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news" and valuation concerns (S&P P/E 23).
No follow-through from dip-buyers; lack of conviction into close.
Internals:
Growth hit hard (-1.8%) vs. Value (-0.5% large-cap).
Mega-caps (NVIDIA -4%, Tesla -5%) dragged indexes.
Hindenburg Omen: New spike showing confirmations which elevates caution (historically 20–25% hit rate, but clusters matter).
Technicals:
Support holding at 20-period EMA; close below would flip short-term trend negative.
Still positive on all timeframes (short, intermediate, long) via moving averages.
Stochastics/RSI turning negative; StochRSI extreme oversold.
VIX up slightly but still below20; put/call ratios rising (hedging spike).
Macro:
Dollar: above100 (pressure on stocks); 10-yr yield down to 4.09%.
Government shutdown resulting in no key data (JOLTS delayed until Wednesday, Jobs Report uncertain).
Sentiment: Shifted bearish (below 25 which can mean a contrarian oversold signal).
Outlook for Wednesday, Nov 5, 2025:
Bias: Cautiously positive but negative momentum building.
Key Levels (S&P):
Support: 20 EMA, then 50 SMA.
Gamma flip risk below 6,754 (turns key support/resistance model negative).
Seasonality: Positive for November (especially early); historically strong post-rate cuts.
Data Calendar (non-gov’t unless noted):
MBA Mortgage Apps, ADP Employment, ISM Services, JOLTS (delayed from Tue).
Risks:
Continued profit-taking in growth/mega-caps.
Dollar strength and election noise.
Mass Index signaling potential reversal (novelty, but aligning).
Opportunities:
Market-neutral strategies favored (non-trending ADX below 20).
Big Picture:
Bull case intact: Above key MAs, above 10% over 200 SMA, earnings beats (64%), soft-landing narrative.
Bear risks rising: Broad participation fading, smart money indicators all negative, growth/value rotation stalling.
Conclusion:
Still positive while holding 20 EMA, but short-term weakness intensifying. Watch gamma level (6,754). A decisive break lower flips short-term bearish; id prices hold there is may be room for a rebound.