Daily Update Podcast for Thursday November 6, 2025

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Market Summary for Wednesday, November 5, 2025:
Outlook for Thursday November 6, 2025:
Recap:
Price Action (S&P 500): Flat open → climbed above daily pivot (6768) and R1 (6806) → hit resistance at 6,825 → late-day selling erased most gains. Closed +0.37% (above avg volume) but below 6,800.
Tone: Modest bounce but defensive; mega-caps held up best, small/mid-caps outperformed early but faded.
Key Levels: Support = 20-period EMA/SMA (still holding). Resistance = 6,850 (gamma flip risk at 6,744 if breached lower).
Breadth: Mixed; advance/decline improved on volume but still negative on price. Below 50% of S&P stocks above 20-DMA (short-term weak).
Macro & Sentiment:
Rates/Dollar: 10-yr yield ↑ to 4.16% (from under 4% a week ago). Dollar ↑ slightly (USD above 100) → potential headwind for stocks.
Data: ADP +42K (beat +26K est., prior -29K) → stronger labor, rains on Dec rate-cut odds.
ISM Services 52.4 (beat 50.9 est.) → expansion + rising prices = inflationary, anti-cut.
MBA Mortgage Apps -1.9% (prior +7.1%).
Sentiment:
Investors Intelligence: Bulls 4.0 (still extreme, contrarian).
VIX under 20. No fear, but Hindenburg Omen confirmed (Oct 10 spike + clusters → respect).
Buybacks: Blackout window easing but still muted.
Technical ScorecardTimeframe
Short: Neutral (above 20-EMA). Mixed → Negative lean. Weak. StochRSI extreme neg; Chaikin Money Flow negative.
Intermediate: Positive (above 50-SMA). Mixed, rolling over. Negative. MACD bear cross; PMO/TSI ↓
Long: Positive (over 10% above 200-SMA). Positive but flattening. Positive Uptrend intact.
Growth vs Value:
Large-cap flat, mid-cap weak (below 50-SMA), small-cap strong ratio but index treading water.
Sectors:
Discretionary + tech led; materials/energy BPI below 30 (weak). Financials +0.3% but lagging S&P.
Smart Money: 3 indicators negative (Chaikin, Acc/Dist., McClellan Osc/Summation).
Thursday Nov 6 Outlook
Calendar: No gov’t data (shutdown). Focus: election noise, Supreme Court tariff rulings.
Seasonality: Nov 6 historically positive (Dow/S&P/Nasdaq). Post-election Nov strong.
Pivot Points (Thu): Watch Fib pivot support (held Wed).
Bias: Still positive on MAs but non-trending (ADX below 20). Late selling + dollar/rates = caution. Break 20-EMA on close → risk gamma flip lower. Need volume conviction to push 6,850.
Bottom Line:
Bounce lacked follow-through; market defensive despite mega-cap resilience. Rate-cut odds fading fast. 20-EMA is the short-term line in the sand.