Daily Update Podcast for Friday November 7, 2025

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Daily Market Update Summary for Thursday, Nov 6, 2025:
Outlook for Friday, Nov 7:
Overall Market Performance:
S&P 500: Closed down 1.12% on above-average volume, below 6,725 after late-day selling.
Opened lower, broke S1 (6,768) and S2 (6,730), found temporary support near 6,708, rebounded to 6,750 (round-number resistance), then sold off into the close.
Short-term trend: Turned negative — price now below 20-period SMA & EMA (first sustained break since spring).
Intermediate-term: Weakening but still positive (above 50-period MA).
Long-term: Remains positive (well above 200-period MA).
Key Technical Signals:
20-period MAs: Broken lower → Short-term negative.
Parabolic SAR: Flipped to negative (dot now above price).
Hindenburg Omen: New spike + cluster forming (confirmed Oct 29; echoes pre-2020 & 2021 warnings).
StochRSI: Extreme oversold (only short-term momentum showing conviction).
Broke Nov monthly pivot; now testing S1 (6,720 gamma support).
Growth vs Value
Growth underperforming sharply; large-cap growth/value ratio below 50 & 200-day MAs.
Mega-Caps led the decline.
Sector & Style Performance
Winners (Defensive): Energy (+), Healthcare (+ modest; Eli Lilly boosted by Trump drug pricing announcement)
Losers (Growth): Tech, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary (bottom 3).
Financials underperforming S&P since last Spring; Real Estate & Materials weaker.
Small/Mid-caps: Hit harder (-1.43% to -1.77%); Russell 2000 below 50-day MA.
Breadth & Sentiment:
Advance/Decline: Declining on price & volume; A/D oscillator below zero.
New Highs/Lows: Expanding lows, contracting highs.
VIX: Rose but still below 20 (low fear); VVIX (vol of vol) picking up.
Put/Call Ratios: Ticked lower (less hedging than expected or possible unwinding).
Surveys: Evercore clients: 76% expect next 10% move up → contrarian bearish.
AAII: Neutral-slightly bullish (+1.7 net).
Smart Money Flow: All 3 indicators (Boom, Chaiken Flow/Osc) negative.
Macro & Fundamentals:
Interest Rates: 10-yr yield fell to 4.09% (from 4.16%) → possible flight to safety.
Dollar (USD): Dropped below 100 but still in short/intermediate uptrend.
Economic Data:
Challenger Job Cuts: 153K (highest since Oct 2020), concentrated in Tech (AI-driven) & Warehousing.
No gov’t data due to shutdown.
Valuations: Forward P/E above 23 (overvalued zone); earnings growth still rising YoY.
Flows: Heavy into money markets ($47B equities sweep in Oct); bonds favored YTD.
Corporate Guidance: 43% beating EPS consensus.
Seasonality vs Reality:
November historically strong (positive for Dow/S&P/NASDAQ on Nov 7 since 2002).
Positive seasonality failed Tuesday & Thursday despite uptrend bias.
Friday Outlook (Nov 7, 2025)
Technicals:
Oversold StochRSI; gamma support ~6,720; possible bounce off S1 on the daily chart.
Series of lower highs/lows; late-day selling momentum; Hindenburg cluster building.
Data
Consumer Sentiment:
Seasonality
Nov 7 historically green but recent pattern is ignoring seasonality.
Bottom Line:
Short-term: Negative and building (respect the 20-MA breakdown).
Intermediate: Positive but vulnerable (watch 50-MA).
Risk: Growing defensive rotation, mega-cap weakness, Hindenburg confirmation.
“Buy-the-dip” failed Thursday; smart money sold into close.