Israel’s Pressure Play Just Backfired — BADLY

Right, so they called it a ceasefire. Said hostilities would stop at four in the morning on 27 November 2024. Wrote it down. Signed it. Announced it like a closing ceremony. Hezbollah withdrew north of the Litani River. Lebanese Army took up the south. UNIFIL logged the maps. The paperwork was clean, but it’s all that was. The air was not. Israeli drones never left the sky. Israeli shells never really stopped finding the same villages they had found before. The ceasefire existed in statements, not in practice and so it has continued for almost a year now.
But despite Israel’s thousands of ceasefire violations, then came the pressure on Lebanon didn’t it. Not on Israel to stop the strikes. On Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah. Disarm the resistance to secure the border, while Israel keep on firing, keep on occupying territory. Hand over the only deterrent to the literal threat. Call it stability. Call it peace. Call it anything except what it is.
A quiet demand being made under bombardment.
Well Hezbollah hasn’t returned fire. Not yet. But it is also increasingly no longer ruling it out either.
Right, so the Lebanese ceasefire. The wording was explicit. The time was fixed. Four in the morning, 27th November last year. Hostilities to stop. The area south of the Litani River was to be secured by the Lebanese Army. Hezbollah to remain north of that line. Israel to cease offensive operations against Lebanese territory. UNIFIL to monitor compliance. The ceasefire was presented as the practical implementation of Resolution 1701. The same resolution that has governed the Lebanon-Israel border since 2006. No clause requiring disarmament. No clause requiring surrender. A freeze. A line. A halt.
Hezbollah pulled its fighters back. The Litani became the marker. The Lebanese Army increased its deployment in the south. UNIFIL patrol logs continued. The operational map remained visible. The ceasefire existed in writing. But it didn’t exist in movement, nor in the field in the field. The reality held from Lebanon’s side, but as suual when it comes to ceasefires, not from Israel’s.
Israeli drones remain over southern Lebanon to this day. They remain over the valleys and villages. The engine noise overhead has never stopped. UNIFIL continue to record the flights, even above their own heads. The violations have been documented pretty much daily for all this time.
There were also strikes of course. At first, targeted. Then wider. A house on the outskirts of a village. A road by the orchards. A grazing field burned. The escalation came in increments. It did not declare itself. It accumulated. Israel pushing to see what it could get away with.
No announcement preceded the strikes. No revocation of the ceasefire. The ceasefire was still named in public statements. Israeli breaches were ignored, so the strikes continued anyway. UNIFIL noted destabilisation. The documentation was routine, administrative, unadorned. Paperwork is not dramatic. It is precise. The record is visible and documented, but what does it matter, if it counts for nothing?
The Lebanese Army issued public statements. Words saying that the Israeli attacks were obstructing the Army’s ability to deploy. The attacks were intended to destabilise the south. The attacks expanded destruction. The Army spoke as an institution of the state. The Army did not mention negotiation. The Army did not mention escalation. The Army confirmed obstruction. The Army confirmed pressure.
And this all occurred while a diplomatic track was underway. The United States and France presented a stabilisation framework, no sniggering at the back please, though who can blame you a snort of derision, when what they have called stabilisation has been anything but. The language was administrative. Security arrangements. Political assurances. The phrase that carried weight was “exclusive arms.” The suggestion was that only the Lebanese state should hold arms within the republic. The implication was disarmament of Hezbollah was the price for security, even though the ceasefire, which the US and France supposedly administrate, offers no reassurances at all when Israel can continue to attack.
The ceasefire did not require disarmament. Resolution 1701 did not require disarmament. The negotiating parties did not agree to disarmament. The external framework introduced disarmament. It’s changing the remit after the fact and worse, Lebanese president Joseph Aoun agreed to it, pinning his government down all the more. So what has happened since is that the ceasefire remained the word, but the meaning shifted in practice. The line between ceasefire and conditional surrender narrowed.
The government hesitated. Officials spoke of national responsibility. The framing was of unity, but the pressure hasn’t lifted for all of that, it’s increased if anything. The strikes continued. The drones continued. The negotiations which by this point are more like coercion have continued. The south of Lebanon continues to absorb damage. The Lebanese Army continues to be obstructed in deployment. The situation is completely untenable and all one sided because Lebanon lack any leverage, with an economy on its backside following the banking collapse in 2019 and no strategic use to Western powers like the US, being just a problem for their Zionist project in the Middle East, allowed to run rampant as they are.
So it is at this point that Hezbollah has issued a statement; having sat out of proceedings since the ceasefire began, allowing the government to pursue the current course of action, which has unfortunately led to them being backed into a corner. The tone of the statement is formal. It has been issued to the Lebanese leadership in light of the demands for their disarmament as the price for peace. The statement recorded the timeline. The statement affirmed compliance with the ceasefire. The statement documented Israeli violations by land, sea, and air. The statement identified diplomatic pressure as a vehicle for disarmament. The statement rejected disarmament under coercion. The statement placed defence within the frame of sovereignty and that they have a right to defend that sovereignty. The statement was not a call to arms. It was not a threat. It was pointing out to the likes of Aoun that the moment before a line is crossed is here. So here’s what they said:
"Out of Hezbollah’s commitment to national understanding, the protection of sovereignty, and the preservation of security and stability in Lebanon—and as a contribution to strengthening and supporting the unified Lebanese position against the Zionist aggression, its violations, and its continued breach of the ceasefire agreement reached through the efforts of US envoy Amos Hochstein following indirect negotiations between the Lebanese state and the Zionist entity—and in order to block attempts to drag the Lebanese state into new rounds of negotiations serving only the goals and interests of the Zionist enemy and the powers of tyranny hostile to truth and justice,
we hereby express to you, gentlemen leaders, and through you to all our dear people in Lebanon, our vision regarding the current situation and the required national stance that we are committed to and consider the effective path to preserving Lebanon’s interests at this critical stage for our region and the world.
The ceasefire declaration of 27 November 2024, which was agreed upon to halt the Zionist aggression against Lebanon, constituted—according to the parties to the agreement, both individually and collectively—a mechanism for implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701, issued in 2006. That resolution defined the area of operation as being exclusively south of the Litani River in Lebanon, and stipulated that this area be cleared of weapons and armed personnel, and that the Israeli enemy withdraw beyond the known Blue Line.
While the declaration’s preamble stated that its clauses were steps to implement Resolution 1701, Article 1 of the declaration stipulated:
“Israel and Lebanon shall cease all hostilities as of 4:00 a.m. on Wednesday, 27 November 2024, in accordance with the commitments detailed below.”
Article 2 further stated:
“As of 4:00 a.m. on Wednesday, 27 November 2024, and thereafter, the Government of Lebanon shall prevent Hezbollah and all other armed groups in Lebanese territory from carrying out any operations against Israel, and Israel shall refrain from any offensive military operations against Lebanese territory—including civilian, military, or other state-related targets—by land, air, or sea.”
The articles continued up to Article 13.
While the facts confirm that Lebanon and Hezbollah have implicitly and strictly abided by the content of the ceasefire declaration from the moment it was issued until today, the Zionist enemy has continued its violations of the declaration by land, sea, and air—and still does so now—disregarding all calls to cease its hostile actions.
Instead, the enemy has exploited such calls to blackmail Lebanon, impose conditions, and evade halting its aggression—persisting in its project to subjugate Lebanon, humiliate its state, people, and army, and drag it into a political agreement that would force Lebanon to recognize the enemy’s interests in our country and the region, as well as to acknowledge the legitimacy of its armed occupation of Palestinian land.
Although the hasty governmental decision regarding the “exclusivity of arms” was presented by some as a goodwill gesture toward the enemy and its protectors, the enemy exploited this governmental misstep to impose the disarmament of the resistance throughout Lebanon as a precondition for halting hostilities—something that was not stipulated in the ceasefire declaration and can neither be accepted nor imposed.
The issue of exclusive arms cannot be discussed in response to foreign demands or Israeli blackmail, but only within a national framework that produces a comprehensive strategy for defense, security, and the protection of national sovereignty.
It must be clear to all Lebanese that the Israeli enemy does not target Hezbollah alone; it targets Lebanon in all its components, and seeks to strip Lebanon of every means to reject the Zionist entity’s extortionist demands, imposing submission to its policies and interests in Lebanon and the region.
This demands a unified and dignified national stance that compels respect for our country and people, and safeguards Lebanon’s sovereignty and dignity.
As for becoming entangled in or sliding toward the proposed negotiation traps, such moves would only grant further gains to the Israeli enemy, which always takes and never abides by its commitments—indeed, it gives nothing.
With such a savage enemy, backed by the American tyrant, no maneuver or cleverness can succeed.
Lebanon’s responsibility today lies in enforcing the ceasefire declaration, and pressuring the Zionist enemy to comply with it—not in yielding to aggressive blackmail or being dragged into political negotiations with the Zionist enemy.
Such negotiations serve no national interest and carry existential dangers that threaten the Lebanese state and its sovereignty.
In conclusion, as a founding component of Lebanon, which we have pledged as a final homeland for all its citizens, we reaffirm our legitimate right to resist occupation and aggression, and to stand alongside our army and our people in defending the sovereignty of our country.
Legitimate defense does not fall under the category of a “decision of peace” or a “decision of war”; rather, we exercise our right to defend against an enemy that imposes war upon our country, refuses to halt its assaults, and seeks to subjugate our state.
Based on this vision, we approach current developments by reaffirming to all that the present moment calls for unity of effort to halt the Zionist violations, aggression, and escalation against our country, and to repel the security and existential dangers threatening it.
We hold in high esteem the patience of our steadfast and proud people, who endure injustice and aggression alongside us, hoping to preserve sovereignty and national dignity.
We pledge to remain in the position of honor, dignity, and truth, defending our land and our people, and working toward the fulfillment of our generations’ hopes and future."
That statement sat inside a timeline already running. It did not create the situation. It simply named it. After the statement, the Israeli strikes have of course continued. The most recent reports detailing a new wave across the south. An expanded target list when Israel shouldn’t be targeting anything. The Lebanese Army repeated its position. UNIFIL repeated its warning. The language from Beirut did not change. The government spoke of calm while absorbing damage. Calm under conditions that cannot possibly hold though.
The external pressure has continued too. The disarmament demand is still on the diplomatic table. The phrase “exclusive arms” remains a pivot point. The policy was presented as administrative restructuring. The effect is the removal, regardless of your views of Hezbollah, of deterrent capacity. The ceasefire became the means through which the state is being encouraged to surrender its only means of refusal, but the statement makes clear Hezbollah are not going to do that.
However Hezbollah have also not yet mobilised south. Not after the statement. Not after the most recent wave of strikes. The forces remained north of the Litani. The boundary still holds, perhaps talk is all Hezbollah have, the matter of whether or not they have recovered after Israel’s pager attack a matter of some conjecture. The organisation continued to speak through formal statements and parliamentary representatives though and their line remains clear. No negotiations with Israel. No surrender of resistance capacity. No acceptance of coercion under diplomatic cover. The message was delivered to the state, not to the battlefield and not to Israel. You do get the impression Hezbollah referring to the exclusive arms clause as a misstep was an awfully polite version of what they were probably saying instead.
The Lebanese Army has not withdrawn either though. The Army has not conceded the south. The Army has not publicly endorsed disarmament either, even if the government has shifted in that direction. The Army repeated that Israeli strikes interfered with its ability to enforce the ceasefire. That alignment matters. The Army’s role under Resolution 1701 is territorial enforcement. If the Army cannot enforce, the ceasefire fails. If the ceasefire is failing because of Israeli strikes, the breach is traceable. The Army’s statement is not political support for Hezbollah. It is confirmation of sequence.
This is the structure. The ceasefire was held on one side. Violated by the other. Disarmament was demanded externally on behalf of the violators. The Lebanese government blinked. The Army confirmed obstruction. Hezbollah documented the breach. The strikes escalated. The timeline is complete without any further interpretation. No speculation is required.
So the situation now sits in a much more narrow corridor. If the ceasefire continues as written, with monitoring and freeze, the south remains stable, except it doesn’t in practice as Israel breach it. But if the ceasefire continues on paper but is enforced as disarmament pressure, the south will shift. If disarmament becomes a condition of stability, the ceasefire becomes unstable. The question is not whether Hezbollah wants war. The question is what remains of a state that cannot refuse foreign demands made to it under threat.
Hezbollah’s position is therefore conditional. Defence if the state is threatened. Retaliation if the boundary breaks. Armed resistance if disarmament is forced. The Lebanese state has been put on notice due to its own ‘misstep.’ A state that cannot refuse becomes a territory under management. A movement that disarms under coercion becomes irrelevant. The border becomes a negotiation, not a line. The population becomes a subject, not a state.
The strikes in the south continue. The diplomatic pressure continues. The Lebanese government remains between positions. The Lebanese Army remains under fire. Hezbollah remains behind the Litani. The timeline right now still holds. The next movement depends on whether disarmament continues to be pressed as a condition for ceasefire compliance that never actually comes, from a force that nobody trusts because of it. If the pressure remains, the ceasefire ends. If the pressure stops, the ceasefire resumes. The choice sits with those applying the pressure.
Hezbollah is preparing to resume armed resistance only if the structure of defence is dismantled. Israel is applying pressure to turn the ceasefire into disarmament. The government is caught in the space between coercion and collapse. The Army is stating the situation as it is. UNIFIL is documenting the violations as they occur. The ceasefire as written in practice does not hold. The ceasefire as enforced remains a tool of strategic pressure and not a pathway to peace.
If war resumes, the cause will be obvious. The timeline will show how it happened. The paper trail already does. Ceasefire. Violation. Pressure. Statement. Obstruction. Escalation. Break. The break has not yet been declared. The break is forming. Not because Hezbollah is preparing to initiate it, but because Israel is preparing to abuse the ceasefire to force Lebanon to comply. They are emboldened in that because the state has not defended the capacity to refuse. And that’s the real tragedy.
Of course much of the narrative hinges on the accusation that Lebanon is a failed state, whilst omitting to mention it is being engineered that way and certainly this ceasefire exposes a lot of that, but a similar story has developed in Iraq too, however they have oil, so are being treated a bit differently. They have value placed on them, and the hypocrisy is doing Lebanon something of a favour so get all the details of that story here.
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