S&P 500 Daily Update for Monday November 10, 2025

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Summary of Daily Market Update for Friday, Nov 7, 2025:
Outlook for Monday, Nov 10, 2025:
Market Action on Friday:
S&P 500: Closed +0.13% (modest gain), but intraday reversal was impressive:
Gapped lower at open, fell below 6,700 and S1 (6,686), breached 50-period MA and S2 (6,652).
Bottomed near lunchtime, then rebounded sharply in the afternoon (smart money buying).
Regained S2, 50-MA, S1, 6,700, and closed slightly positive.
Key Catalyst:
Dow Jones Semiconductor Index hit its 50-day MA and bounced, pulling other indices higher.
Volume: Above average (supportive of reversal).
Mega-caps: Rebounded strongly off lows; most closed well off of their intraday bottoms.
Broader Tone & Technicals:
Short-term: Negative (below 20-period MAs; momentum rolling over).
Intermediate-term: Still positive (holding 50-period MAs).
Long-term: Positive but vulnerable.
Trend: Short-term negative trend forming (ADX rising but below 20, not confirmed). Intermediate not yet trending down.
Sentiment: Extreme negative (21 on contrarian scale); fear rising (VIX above 20 most of day but settled below 20, Ulcer Index up).
Breadth: Mixed — A/D line ticked up, new highs contracting, new lows expanding.
Smart Money: 2/3 indicators turned positive (Chaikin Money Flow, Oscillator); Accumulation/Distribution still negative.
Growth vs Value: Growth underperformed; defensive sectors led (Staples, Energy, Utilities, Real Estate).
Key Concerns:
Hindenburg Omen: Confirmed + multiple spikes (similar to pre-COVID & 2021 tops).
Consumer Sentiment: 50.3 (worse than expected, down from 53.6; a year ago 71.8) → pessimism rising.
Consumer Credit: Surged +$13.1B (vs +$8B est.) → households leaning on debt.
Government Shutdown: Ongoing; air travel disruptions escalating (Thanksgiving risk). Deal rumors surfaced then faded.
Bitcoin: Breaking key support; early "whales" dumping; possibly losing decentralization narrative.
Monday Outlook for Nov 10, 2025
Bias: Cautiously negative short-term; watching for follow-through.
Bull case: Reversal sustains → growth/semiconductors lead, breadth improvement.
Bear case: Fails at resistance (6,700–6,730, unchanged line) → retests lows.
No major econ data; bond market closed Tuesday (Veterans Day), stocks open.
Seasonality: Historically strong in Nov (post-election, post-Fed cut), but reality deviating so far.
Watchlist:
Semiconductors (SOX): Held 50-DMA — will it lead higher?
Growth/Value ratios, VIX, gamma levels, A/D line.
Weekend news: Shutdown deal? Geopolitics?
Conclusion:
Impressive reversal off of support, but not enough to flip short-term negative bias. Momentum and breadth still weakening. Intermediate trend intact for now. Need sustained buying to confirm bullish shift.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IXaryTUllX9Hl_l9Bq9i23t1VrZ6lYYX/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!