Weekly Update for November 10-14, 2025

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Weekly Market Update for Nov 3–7, 2025):
Outlook for Nov 1-14, 2025:
Overall Performance: S&P 500: –1.63% (above-avg volume). Dow: –1.2%. NASDAQ: –3.0%. NASDAQ 100: –3.0%. Small-caps: hit hardest (rate-cut hopes fading).
Key Theme:
Short-Term Defensive Shift. Market fell below 20-day MA (daily) → short-term negative but no strong conviction yet.
Friday: early over 1% drop, tested 50-day MA on S&P, NASDAQ, Dow; landed exactly on 50-day MA of Dow Jones Semiconductor Index → sharp rebound to close positive.
Question: One-day wonder or momentum restart? 50-day MA held, but value outperformed growth, energy/defensives outperformed → still defensive tilt.
Broader Context:
Long-Term: Still bullish (uptrends intact, higher highs/lows). A 10%+ correction wouldn’t break the big picture.
Short-Term: Weakness building; below 20-day MA, trend non-confirmed. Green/red lines converging on weekly ADX (18.8). Seasonality Clash:
November typically +3.5% (60%-win rate since 2021), best 6-month period (Nov–Apr).
Reality: Down week despite “positive seasonality” → possible shakeout of weak hands before FOMO re-enters.
Macro & External Pressures:
Government Shutdown: No resolution; now impacting airline travel (Thanksgiving looming) and SNAP benefits.
Limited gov’t data → private reports (ADP +52k, Challenger layoffs up) filling gaps.
Fed Rate-Cut Odds: Dec cut probability down from 90% → 67% (33% expect pause).
ISM Services: 52.4 (expansion, beat est.) + Powell/Fed comments → less dovish.
Market now eyeing January (53% expect cut).
Earnings: 91% of S&P reported; 82% beat EPS.
Q4 growth forecast +10%+, margins rising.
AI/growth still dominant narrative but capex debt concerns emerging (off-balance-sheet?).
Rates & Bonds 10-yr yield: 4.09% (was below 4% pre-cut; recent typical post-cut rise).
Possible Flight-to-safety flows on Thu/Fri.
Sector & Style Rotation:
Outperformers (Defensive). Underperformers (Growth). Energy, Utilities, Staples, Materials, Real Estate. Tech (–most), Comm, Discretionary lagged. Value outperforming Growth short-term.
Mega-caps underperformed. Equal-weight S&P held better than cap-weighted.
Semiconductors: Volatile but SMH weekly above 100% above 200-WMA — historically leads to deeper pullbacks when this extreme.
Technical Highlights:
Support Held: S&P, NASDAQ, Dow reclaimed 50-day MA by Friday close.
Volume above avg all week; no structural damage to weekly bars (higher highs/Lower/lows).
Warning Signs: Breadth: Narrow (mega-cap led); NYSE/NASDAQ breadth soft.
VIX: Briefly above 20 intraday Fri, closed below 20.
Sentiment: II Bulls still above 4 (extreme); Sentiment under 25 → contrarian bullish if not prolonged.
Hindenburg Omen: Multiple spikes since Oct 10 → cluster forming (watch for more confirmation).
SMH weekly % above 200-WMA: Currently 0ver 100% — prior peaks led to declines.
Outlook for Nov 10–14, 2025:
Tuesday: Likely quiet (Veterans Day; bond market closed, stocks open).
Data: CPI due (if released); could sway Dec cut odds.
Scenarios: Follow-through rally from Friday’s 50-MA bounce → retest highs.
Fail & retest lows → possible 5–10% pullback to shake out seasonality bulls.
Bigger picture: Still bullish; pullback = healthy if the climate does not change drastically.
Conclusion:
Short-term defensive & toppy, long-term intact. Watch semiconductors, breadth, and Dec cut odds for next directional clue.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IXaryTUllX9Hl_l9Bq9i23t1VrZ6lYYX/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!