Deep Dive Update for Monday November 10, 2025

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Deep Dive Video Update Summary for prepared for Monday, Nov 10, 2025:
This weekly analysis reviews specialized charts for longer-term insights into market volatility, breadth, momentum, sector rotation, and technical health. Despite a choppy week with a 1.7% S&P decline and significant technical damage (many red alerts), the broader trend remains positive but vulnerable, with Friday's intraday reversal providing short-term relief.
Volatility (VIX) Overview:
Level: Closed below 20 (positive); briefly spiked above on Friday but reversed lower.
Momentum: Drifting higher longer-term; recent spike post-Oct 10 sell-off, now rising again.
Speed (9-period RSI): Slightly above 50 (neutral, no extreme).
S&P–VIX Correlation: Dropped sharply after October dive (now low).
VIX/MOVE Ratio: Rising modestly — stock vol picking up vs. bonds (mild caution).
VIX/VVIX Ratio: Ticking up after prior decline (negative if sustained).
Skew Index: Below red zone (ignore for now).
Takeaway:
Volatility low and contained; rising momentum not yet alarming.
Market Structure & Breadth:
Large vs. Small Caps: Ratio rising (large caps outperforming); small caps stalled after Fed’s uncertain Dec rate cut comments.
Growth vs. S&P: Broke below 50-day MA intraday Friday but closed above across most indices (intermediate support held).
Exception: Semiconductors tagged 50-day MA and bounced strongly (bullish signal).
% Gains from Lows: Tracking retracements; only relevant if decline deepens (more than 5–10%).
Advance/Decline Lines:
S&P (price/volume): Mild weakness, little conviction.
NYSE Cumulative: Hit all-time high Friday.
Broader A/D: Stabilizing after mild downside.
10-Day High/Low Avg: Declining but still above 50 (positive); below 50 = negative shift.
Risk-On/Risk-Off, High/Low Beta: Pulling back after uptrends.
Momentum Stocks vs. S&P: Breaking down (concern); monitor closely.
Index Technical Scores (0–100)Index
NASDAQ Comp ETF: 89.3. NASDAQ 100 ETF: 85.9. S&P 500: 77.6. Small Caps: 75.2. Drifting post-Fed. Dow: 67.7. Above 50 (positive). Mid-Caps: 44.9. Worst performer, under 50.
Rainbow Trend Analysis (Moving Averages):
Short-Term: (10–50 MA): Dropped below 50 MA briefly (fast move); lines may roll over if no rebound.
Intermediate: (20–100 MA): Touched top of rainbow Friday; vulnerable if weakness persists.
Long-Term: (50–250 MA): Only 1-day dip; all lines still rising → uptrend intact.
Key Support Levels:
Daily pivot held Friday low; bounced to close above the open.
Boom Indicator: S&P now below 10% above 200-day SMA (was above 10%); semiconductors version in focus.
Anchored WMAs: Orange line = first major support (below 50 MA); hold = positive.
Ichimoku (Weekly): Above green cloud; below blue/red lines but near red (long-term). Short-term weak, intermediate at risk.
Sector & Thematic Highlights:
Semiconductors: Bounced off 50-day MA; watching for follow-through (Friday value outperformance casts doubt).
Financials/FinTech (ARKK): Underperforming S&P since spring; ratio broke 200-day but recovered Friday.
Retail: Weak; ratio and price near 200-day MA, RSI below 50.
Discretionary/Staples: Weighted version weakening (Amazon/Tesla drag); equal-weight flat.
Tech/Utilities, Biotech/Healthcare: Pulling back after strength.
Hotels vs. Utilities: Still rising (utilities weak).
Value Line Geometric: Negative divergence — lower high in 2024 vs. 2021 while cap-weighted indices hit ATHs (Magnificent 7 skew gains).
Global & Macro:
U.S. vs. International: Range-bound.
U.S. vs. Germany (DAX): U.S. holding better; DAX sideways, below 50-day MA.
Inflation Expectations: (TIPS ratios): Short, intermediate, and longer-term all declining → market not worried.
U.S.–German Yield Spread vs. USD: Correlation neutral; slightly inverse.
2-Year Yield: Lower highs, no breakout.
Breadth Metrics% S&P stocks above 200-day MA: Bounced but near 50 (below = longer-term negative).
Percent above 50-day MA: Below 50 across large/mid/small caps but improved Friday.
Overall Assessment:
Bullish: Low LT VIX, A/D highs, long-term rainbows intact, inflation fears absent, key support held Friday.
Cautions: Technical damage (red alerts), momentum breakdown, sector rotation (value outperformed growth Friday), negative divergences (Value Line, small caps, breadth).
Watch: Semiconductor follow-through, S&P vs. staples ratio, % above MAs, VIX momentum, FinTech ratio.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZESFpIDAPjY20yvPNA4okAGE0QXdskd6/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!