What to Watch Update for Monday November 10, 2025

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What to Watch Market Update for Monday November 10, 2025:
Overall:
The S&P 500 experienced technical damage Thursday/Friday but saw an impressive late-day bounce on Friday, closing slightly up (+0.13% S&P). Despite short-term defensive rotation (growth → value, stocks → bonds), the bigger-picture trend remains positive. A deeper pullback is possible without breaking the bull market.
Key question: Will the defensive shift continue, or will Friday’s bounce resume the uptrend?
External factors: Government shutdown delaying data.
Fed casting doubt on Dec rate cut (Jan now expected).
Geopolitical noise (low direct impact).
Positive Nov/Dec seasonality (but skepticism growing).
POSITIVE:
S&P Daily: Fell below 50-MA → reclaimed it, closed above pivot & at day’s high. Gaps filled.
Sentiment: II Survey still above 4 (extreme bullish); Fear gauge under 25 (contrarian positive).
Breadth: A/D line, Swell Oscillator, Chaiken Money Flow/Oscillator turned up Friday.
Trend Systems: Landry Light at 0 (uptrend paused), Proper Order resuming count, weekly Parabolic SAR & Special K positive.
Support Levels: S&P, Dow, NASDAQs, Qs, Wilshire, Total US ETF held or reclaimed 50-MA. Anchored WMAs rising.
Growth vs Value: Small-cap G/V strong (despite index stalling); NAS100/Dow, SMH/Dow, FANG above key MAs.
Semiconductors: SMH & SOX bounced off 50-MA; provided market-wide support Friday. Weekly bars intact.
Stocks Above MAs:
Percent of 50% of S&P above 200-MA (long-term positive).
Weekly/LT: ADX green above red, higher highs/lows intact; NAS100 above 2009 trendline.
NEGATIVE: (Defensive Shift Accelerating)
Short-Term Trend: Below 20-SMA/EMA; McClellan Osc, Summation Index below 0; Vortex red turned negative.
Momentum: Daily Parabolic SAR flipped negative; TSI, Coppock, Bullish % (S&P, NYSE, NAS100) below 50 & falling.
Growth → Value: Large/mid-cap G/V breaking down; S&P G/V below 200-MA (deterioration since Aug).
Breadth: Percent of stocks above 20/50/100-MA below 50%; new highs contracting; H/L range narrowing.
Russell 2000 lost 50-MA; mid-cap G/V plunging; financials, fintech, homebuilders underperforming.
Risk-On: Discretionary/Staples, Qs/SPX below MAs; momentum/SPX rolling over.
Overextension: S&P now under 10% above 200-SMA (was above 10%); SOX/SMH above 100% above 200-WMA (historical top zone).
Point & Figure: Daily/weekly charts printing O’s (bearish).
WATCHING (Mixed / Early Warning)
Risk-On/Risk-Off, High/Low Beta
LT uptrend, ST pulling back
Staples vs Tech/S&P
Rising = defensive (monitor reversal)
Volume: Above avg but trailing off
10-Yr Yield: flight-to-safety?
Bond Ratios: No inflation/rate fear (TIPS, long vs short bonds flat/down)
Oil: Upper $50s (low inflation signal)
Credit Spreads: Widened slightly (fear up)
USD: Daily in downtrend; weekly golden cross forming.
Bellwethers: Semis/Homebuilders bounced; Transports flat, Retail/Banks weak
Gold/SPX: Weekly resistance intact
Hindenburg Omen: Multiple spikes since Oct 10 (2020/2021 precedent)
Fib/Demark Pivots: Friday low hit Fib S2 → strong bounce
Conclusion:
Bull Case: Friday’s support hold + seasonality + extreme sentiment = potential follow-through higher.
Bear case: Defensive rotation since August accelerating; growth/value breakdown, breadth weakening, overextension signals flashing.
Action: Watch 50-MA cluster (S&P, NASDAQs, Semis) and growth/value ratios next week. Break lower = more defensive; reclaim 20-MA + pivot = resume offense.

PDF of Slides:
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!