Daily Update Podcast for Tuesday November 11, 2025

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Daily Market Update Summary: Monday for Nov 10, 2025:
Outlook for Tuesday, Nov 11, 2025:
Veterans Day – Bond Market Closed.
Big Picture:
S&P 500: +1.54%, closed near 6,830 (near intraday high). Gapped higher at open (from Friday’s reversal), briefly dipped below R2 (6,795), then reclaimed and held gains.
Key positive: Recaptured 20-period SMA/EMA → now positive on short, intermediate, and long-term timeframes.
Volume: Below average (concern on a strong up day; partial holiday effect?).
Tone: Optimism on potential government shutdown resolution (Senate procedural vote passed Sunday; final vote pending). No official deal yet, but market priced in relief (air traffic controller layoffs threatened → political pressure).
Indexes and Sectors:
Mega-Cap/Growth: +2.3% (large), +4.4% semis. NVIDIA +5.8%, Google +4%, Amazon/Tesla strong. Value lagged growth. Small Caps: +0.95% (S&P 600). RUT recaptured 50-day MA but still range-bound.
Money rotated out of bonds/utilities into risk-on.
Technicals & Breadth:
Moving Averages: Positive all timeframes. Back above 20-SMA/EMA; Over 10% above 200-SMA.
Gamma Exposure: Green / rising. Tilted positive; 6,800 now support.
Sentiment: Improving. Fear & Greed long-term: 70 → still “positive” (not greed). VIX below 20.
Hindenburg Omen: Another spike (Fri). Series of spikes → elevated caution.
ADX: Non-trending. Short & intermediate term; negative trend.
Breadth:
NYSE A/D above midpoint; McClellan Oscillator above 0; new highs expanded but new lows still elevated.
Smart Money: All 3 positive. Accumulation/Distribution, BOOM, Chaikin turned up.
Rates & Macro:
10-yr Yield: 4.11% (+2 bps) – modest rise, no flight-to-safety.
Dollar: Slightly higher; watching for break above 100.
Oil: Back into $60s.
Crypto: Outflows continue.
Earnings & Data: No major reports Monday.
Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism (only scheduled).
Delayed reports (shutdown impact): CPI (out), PPI, retail sales, employment revisions → data vacuum risk.
Seasonality:
Nov 11 historically weak (S&P win rate 29%).
Broader November & post-election year: positive into year-end.
Tuesday November 11, 2025 Outlook:
Bullish follow-through?
Low holiday volume?
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 flipped short-term positive on moving-average recapture and shutdown optimism, but momentum still negative, volume below average, and Hindenburg spikes flashing caution. Tuesday the bond market closed; watch for any shutdown vote news.