Daily Update Podcast for Thursday November 13, 2025

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Daily Market Update Summary for Wed, November 12, 2025:
Outlook for Thursday November 13, 2025:
Market Action
S&P 500: Virtually unchanged (+0.06%), opened higher, hit intraday high at R1 (6,868.66), dipped below unchanged, found support at daily pivot (6,836), chopped sideways, closed near 6,850.
Volume: Below average.
Position: Still above 20-, 50-, and 200-day MAs → long-term bullish.
Price action: Sleepy, range-bound, defensive tilt. Growth and mega-caps underperformed; value and broad market held up better.
Key Indicator Shift: ADX Trend Indicator: Green line crossed above red in both short- and intermediate-term → now defaults to positive bias.
But: Still below 20, below MAs, and not trending → favors market-neutral, range-bound strategies.
News:
Government Shutdown ended: President signed bill → funding secured through end of Jan 2026.
Dow: Set new all-time high, outperforming.
Oil: Dropped to $58 level (OPEC forecasts supply = demand by 2026).
Interest Rates: 10-yr yield ↓ to 4.07%.
Fed Speak:
Rafael Bostic: Inflation greater than labor concern; hold rates until 2%; retiring Feb 2026.
Kevin Hassett (NEC): Rates could be “a lot lower”; open to Fed nomination.
Sentiment & Breadth:
Investors Intelligence: Bull/Bear ratio fell to 3.75 (from above 4) → improving daily sentiment.
VIX: Mid-17s, below 20 → low fear.
Hindenburg Omen: Still active (multiple spikes) → caution flag, but not sole decision driver.
New Highs: Expanding in non-mega-cap S&P names → broadening participation.
Smart Money Indicators: All positive (accumulation, boom, Chaikin).
Bullish % Index (S&P): Rising, now at 50.
NYSE McClellan Oscillator/Summation: Positive and improving.
Sectors
Healthcare: Rallying (defensive + earnings + favorable news).
Financials: Possibly gaining favor.
Growth vs Value:
Growth underperforming across large-, mid-, small-caps.
Discretionary/Staples and Growth/Value ratios below MAs → defensive shift.
Technical Outlook:
Short-term: Positive (default). ADX green above red, but non-trending, below MAs.
Intermediate: Positive (default). Same; improving internals
Long-term: Bullish. Greater than 10% above 200-day SMA
Gamma Level: Watch 6,800 (support) and 6,900 (resistance).
Parabolic SAR: Still negative (dots above price).
Momentum: Mixed → negative in growth, improving in breadth.
Outlook for Thursday, Nov 13, 2025:
Economic Calendar (Thu?):
Initial/Continuing Claims
CPI (key inflation read)
Treasury Budget
Conclusion:
Positive on all timeframes, but momentum is improving — more defensive than offensive.
Strategy: Market-neutral, range-based plays.
Risks: Persistent Hindenburg, growth weakness, overvaluation (S&P P/E = 23), potential gamma flip below 6,800.
Positives: Broadening breadth, smart money buying, shutdown resolved, seasonality favors Nov/Dec.