Iran Awaits New War

Work by Israel and the United States to justify a new war on Iran is well underway, but the Islamic Republic seems determined to maintain its red lines with regards to any talks on its nuclear and missile programs.

A report published by CNN on October 29 said that Iran ramped up efforts to rebuild its missile program despite the recent reimposition of sanctions by the United Nations.

According to the report, several shipments of sodium perchlorate, a key chemical used in producing solid rocket fuel, arrived from China at the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas in late September.

Without directly referring to the report, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on November 5 that the defense and missile capabilities of the Islamic Republic have improved since the 12-day war with Israel in June, stressing that any future talks won’t include these issues.

Later on November 7, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that the Islamic Republic is open to talks, but would not be coerced into abandoning its nuclear and missile programs.

Rumors that surfaced online at around the same time suggest that Iran is developing an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 10,000 kilometers, which is enough to reach mainland U.S.

On the same day Pezeshkian set his red line, a report by Axios said that Iran’s elite Quds Force attempted to kill the Israeli ambassador to Mexico, Einat Kranz-Neiger, and that the plot was foiled by Israel, the U.S. and Mexican security forces. These accusations were denied not only by the Islamic Republic, but also by Mexico.

Even more accusations were hurled at Iran later. On November 11, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, reported citing satellite imagery reviewed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, that the Islamic Republic is expanding an underground facility near Natanz in Pickaxe Mountain. The report implied that the facility, which includes deep tunnels, could be used as a uranium enrichment site.

The very next day, Reuters reported that the International Atomic Energy Agency has not been able to verify the status of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile since Israel and the U.S. struck the country’s nuclear sites. The news agency cited confidential reports from the UN nuclear watchdog.

All of these recent reports, accusations and speculations are clearly part of coordinated efforts to prepare the public opinion for another war with Iran.

Notably despite this escalation, Israel and the U.S. have not been making clear threats to the Islamic Republic. This is either meant to give talks one last chance, or more likely to maintain the element of surprise as Tehran is today much more prepared for war than back in June.

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