Daily Update Podcast for Monday November 17, 2025

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Daily Market Update for Friday, Nov 14, 2025:
Outlook for Monday, Nov 17, 2025):
S&P 500 (SPX):Open: Gap lower below 6,700 (S2 at 6,660).
Intraday: Hit low at open, recovered above S2 (6,660), S1 (6,699), and unchanged; hit resistance at daily pivot (6,763).
Close: Slightly down –0.05%, below average volume.
Trend: Short-term negative (below 20-MA), intermediate & long-term positive (above 50-MA & 200-MA).
NASDAQ / NDX: Closed slightly positive (+0.1% est.).
Growth outperformed value slightly; 50-MA held.
VIX: Closed 19.83 (under 20, but elevated).
Spent early day above 20; fear easing but still borderline.
Fed & Rates:
Hawkish shift: KC Fed’s Schmid opposes Dec cut; echoes Powell, Kashkari.
Dec cut odds fading (market now below 50% probability).
10-yr yield: 4.15% (rising, but below 4.5% danger zone).
Sentiment & Breadth:
VIX below 20: Mild relief, but Hindenburg Omen spikes building since Oct 10.
Stoch RSI, CCI(14): Oversold, building negative conviction.
Put/Call ratios: 5-day & 10-day rising (bearish).
Advance/Decline: Weak; McClellan Oscillator now negative.
Percent of Stocks above 20-MA: Dropped below 50%.
Growth vs Value:
Defensive rotation: Value outperforming growth (intraday & EOD).
S&P G/V ratio below 50-MA and 200-MA — most concerning.
Small/mid-cap G/V weak; mid-caps worst performer.
Sectors:
Winners: Tech (NVDA +1.77%, back above 50-MA), semis (SMH held 50-MA).
Losers: Discretionary (AMZN –1.22%), communication, financials.
Defensive: Utilities, staples, energy up.
Insiders & Flows:
Corporate insiders selling at highest rate since 2000.
Retail buying, but mutual funds trimming risk.
Valuation & Earnings:
Composite PE (trailing/forward/CAPE) at extreme highs.
Top 10 stocks = 41% of market cap, 30% of earnings.
Profit margins: 13.1%, expected to rise into 2026.
Other Markets:
Bitcoin: Under $100K, solid correlation with NDX (watch over weekend).
Oil: High $59s.
Dollar: Slightly up.
Gold: Sideways most of 2025, recent breakout.
Outlook for Monday Nov 17, 2025:
Short-term: Negative bias — below 20-MA, momentum & trend turning down.
Intermediate: Holding support at 50-MA cluster (SPX, NDX, QQQ, IWM, etc.).
Long-term: Still positive (above 200-MA, uptrend intact).
Catalysts:
NVIDIA earnings (Wed), options expiration week (historically +59%), post-election seasonality positive.
Risks: Geopolitical/news over weekend, tariff talks, further hawkish Fed comments.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 bounced from early lows but closed weak with defensive rotation and fading rate-cut hopes. Short-term negative, but 50-MA support critical. Watch NVDA, Bitcoin futures, and pivot levels Monday. Intermediate/long-term uptrend intact unless 50-MA cluster breaks.