Weekly Update for November 17-21, 2025

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Weekly Market Summary for Nov 10–14, 2025:
Outlook for Nov 17-21, 2025:
Overall Performance: S&P 500: +0.08% (flat but positive week; roller-coaster action).
Dow: +0.3% (hit all-time high midweek above 48,000).
NASDAQ: -0.5%.
Russell 2000 (small caps): -1.8% (worst performer).
Volume: Above average, especially on Thursday's sharp decline (bearish signal).
Key Themes & Drivers: Fed Commentary (Hawkish Shift): Powell + other officials tempered Dec rate-cut odds to 50/50 (from near-certain).
Small caps & growth stocks sold off hard (need lower rates).
10-yr yield rose to 4.15% post-Fed cut (rates up despite cut).
Sector Rotation (Defensive Tilt): Winners: Healthcare, Energ , Materials (bounce), Staples.
Losers: Tech, Discretionary (-most), Communications.
Shift from growth → value/defensive evident short-term; big-picture still growth-led.
Technical Picture: Weekly: Trend intact (green above red MA); above 50-wk MA.
Daily: Weak (below 20-day MA; red above green short-term).
Support Held: 50-day MA on S&P/NASDAQ/NDX defended Friday (opened below, closed above).
Breadth: Choppy; new lows expanded but eased; A/D line still positive.
Sentiment: Fear & Greed: 22 (extreme fear — contrarian bullish).
VIX: Spiked above 20 intraday but closed below 20.
Investors Intelligence Survey: 3.75 (easing from above 4 extreme).
Smart money pulling back; retail piling in.
Macro: Inflation around 3% (above 2% target); GDPNow 4% (strong → no urgent cut needed).
Govt shutdown ended (already priced in).
Earnings: Minimal shutdown impact; tariff mentions down 33%.
Outlook for Nov 17–21, 2025:
Key Event: NVIDIA earnings (Wed after close) — AI bellwether.
Watch: 50-day MAs across major indexes (S&P, NASDAQs, semis, FANG).
Seasonality: Nov historically strong (esp. 2nd half); post-Fed-cut sideways typical.
Risks: Further defensive rotation if Dec cut odds fade more.
Small/mid-caps lag without rate relief.
Semis stretched (Over 100% above 200-wk SMA — historical warning).
Conclusion:
Short-term weak & choppy (below 20-day MAs), but big-picture trend intact. Pullback looks normal so far; 50-day MA defense Friday = hopeful sign. Monitor NVIDIA + defensive outperformance for clues on whether this is digestion or early warning.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!