InterMarket Analysis Update for Monday November 17, 2025

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Intermarket Analysis Update Summary for Nov 17, 2025):
Overview:
Weekly video scans markets beyond S&P 500 for insights into broader trends. S&P down 1.55% MTD (Nov), testing 50-day MAs across indexes. The S&P 500 remains overvalued but not at extremes; short-term defensive tilt (value greater than growth, healthcare strength), longer-term bullish (growth still leads). No major inflation signals. Bitcoin flips to downtrend (Below $100K).
S&P Valuation:
Historical PE: Far above 20 (monthly chart). Overvalued for years; pullbacks often blamed on valuation despite persistence.
Shiller CAPE: 39.72 (vs. median 16–17). High but below 2000 peak (45).
Forward PE: S&P 22.1, Mega-caps 29.5 — still elevated.
Small/Mid-caps (S&P 400/600): More fairly valued but underperforming (need lower rates).
Growth vs. Value:
Long-term: Growth outperforming Value (positive for market).
Short-term: Value outperforming → defensive shift since early Aug.
Key ratios (growth/value) pulling back below 50-day MAs; mid-cap growth/value broke below 200-day MA (bearish).
Watch: If growth fails to rebound as S&P tests 50-day, more downside risk.
Inflation:
No concern. CPI old, no new data.
CRB Index sideways; Baltic Dry up but not parabolic.
Inflation expectations range-bound.
Commodities mixed: Copper ↑ (pro-economy), Oil ↓ (high 50s), Gold/Silver ↑ (profit-taking), Natural Gas/Heating Oil ↑ mildly.
S&P Sectors vs. S&P
Healthcare: Strong. Golden cross; defensive leader, good earnings.
Tech: Pullback. Above 50-day but ratio weakening.
Communication: Weak. Below 50- & 200-day vs. S&P.
Financials: Weak. Persistent downtrend; no clear catalyst.
Energy: Rebounding. Above 50-day but long-term lag.
Discretionary: Soft. Below 50-day.
Staples: Defensive gain. Bouncing but long-term lag.
Utilities: Off highs. Choppy.
Materials: Weak. Below 200-day.
Key Indexes & Ratios:
50-day MA tests holding (S&P, NDX, FANG, Semis, Total Market). Critical support.
NASDAQ 100/S&P: Short-term pullback; long-term growth lead intact.
Small-caps: Underperforming (rate-cut hopes fading).
Mega-caps: Resilient, above 50-day.
Equal vs. Cap-weighted S&P: Recently equal-weight outperformed (breadth improving).
Semis: Holding 50-day; still outperforming Tech long-term.
FANG Index: Closed at 50-day MA — watch for break.
Bitcoin: New downtrend vs. USD (Under $100K, 95K level). High short-term correlation with NDX (10-period).
Currencies & Bonds:
USD Index: Weekly golden cross forming; daily neutral. Strengthening USD = risk for stocks.
EUR, JPY: Weak vs. USD.
10-yr Yield: Under 50-day (price); bonds lagging stocks.
Junk vs. Gov Bonds: Risk of death cross (warning).
Stock/Bond Correlation: Slightly positive (same direction).
Long-Term Trends:
NYSE Composite, S&P monthly: Still above rising MAs.
US vs. World Stocks: US underperforming YTD but above long-term MA.
Advance/Decline: Mixed breadth (mid/small caps weaker).
Dow Theory: Transports lagging after brief spike.
Positive List (Key Highlights)Gold #1 YTD
Stocks outperforming Commodities outperforming Bonds.
Copper ↑, Healthcare ↑, Semis ↑, Japan Nikkei ↑
Negative List (Additions)Bitcoin (new)
USD strength, JPY weakness
Financials, Comm. Services, Materials lagging
Conclusion:
Defensive, testing 50-day MAs — support holding so far.
Long-term: Bullish (growth lead, uptrends intact).
Risks: USD strength, no Dec rate cut, Bitcoin/NDX correlation, junk bond warning.
Watch: 50-day MAs, growth/value rebound, Bitcoin as NDX proxy over weekend.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nLp4Vc_B1l1L-KMJnPIzxEnVUGwk1Lqd/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!