Daily Update Podcast for Tuesday November 18, 2025

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Summary of the Daily Update for Monday, Nov 17, 2025:
Outlook for Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025:
Overall Market Tone:
The S&P 500 turned more negative on Monday. After holding key 50-period moving averages across major indexes on Friday, most were lost on Monday, shifting the intermediate-term bias from neutral/positive to negative.
Short-term: clearly negative.
Intermediate-term: now negative (below 50-day MAs).
Long-term: still intact and positive for now (still above 200-day MAs, broader uptrends not broken yet).
Volume on the decline was below average (encouraging — not heavy conviction selling yet).
Key Events & Drivers:
S&P 500 closed down 0.92%, broke below 6,700 and the daily pivot, found support near 6,650–6,675 zone.
VIX closed above 20 (22.38) → first close above 20 in a while → historically negative for forward returns.
Big focus: NVIDIA earnings after the close on Wednesday — seen as the major wildcard that could either restart upside momentum or accelerate the current weakness.
Fed speakers mixed: some cautious (likely no Dec cut), Waller more dovish → gave a tiny bounce into the close. Market now pricing in lower odds of a December cut.
Hindenburg Omen remains confirmed (series of signals) — historically a reliable warning sign.
Sentiment extremely pessimistic (some gauges at lowest levels of 2025) → contrarian positive longer-term, but no confirmation of a bottom yet.
Sectors:
Defensive rotation accelerated: Utilities only green sector; healthcare and staples held up best.
Growth actually outperformed value on a relative basis (especially large-cap growth), but everything was red except utilities.
Semiconductors weak ahead of NVDA earnings, but the main semi indexes (SMH, SOX) still barely holding their 50-day MAs.
Financials, industrials, small-caps, mid-caps, discretionary, real estate all hit hard.
Technical Highlights:
S&P, NASDAQ 100, Dow, Russell 2000, Wilshire, most broad indexes now below their 50-day MAs.
Short-term momentum indicators (Stoch RSI, Williams %R, CCI, Connor’s RSI, etc.) at extreme negative levels → building downside conviction.
ADX trending higher but still under 20 → trends are forming but not yet “strong/confirmed.”
Support zones to watch: 6,650–6,675 (S1, gamma support, prior lows). Next major zone 100-day MA cluster lower.
Bigger-Picture Takeaway:
The strong positive seasonality that everyone was counting on for the rest of 2025 is now in question.
The S&P 500 can absorb more downside and still keep the long-term uptrend alive, but the character has clearly shifted from “buy every dip” to “more defensive / two-sided.”
NVDA earnings on Wednesday after the close is the pivotal event.
Conclusion:
Short- and now intermediate-term = negative.
Long-term = still positive but under pressure.
The S&P 500 is defensive, momentum is down, VIX above 20, Hindenburg confirmed, sentiment crushed — but volume light and long-term structure not broken yet. NVDA on Wednesday is the make-or-break catalyst.