Daily Update Podcast for Wednesday November 19, 2025

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Summary of the Daily Market Update for Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025:
Outlook for Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025:
Overall Market Tone:
Another down day for the S&P 500 (−0.83%), less severe than Monday but still negative.
Short-term and now intermediate-term trends have turned negative (S&P below its 50-day MA).
Long-term trend remains positive.
Market is fighting positive November/post-election seasonality but failing so far.
Key Levels & Price Action on Tuesday:
Opened lower, briefly broke below 6,600 (round-number battle). Tested S2 support 6,573, bounced temporarily, recovered above 6,600. Late-day selling pushed it back below S1, closing at the 6,617 Level.
Volume slightly below average.
Big Focus: NVIDIA Earnings (after close Wednesday). Highly anticipated catalyst.
Strong report → possible sharp gap up, beware of “sell-the-news” risk (past example: great report → gap up → filled gap and rolled over).
Weak/disappointing report → gap down, but could attract dip-buyers if oversold.
Outcome will heavily influence semiconductors, tech, and overall market direction into Thursday.
Sector & Theme Rotation:
Money continuing to leave mega-cap tech, AI names, growth, and discretionary.
Defensive areas (healthcare, staples, utilities) and some value/energy holding up better.
Equal-weight S&P outperforming cap-weighted recently → decline is concentrated in the biggest growth names.
Technicals & Breadth:
Semiconductors lost their 50-day MA (SMH and SOX now slightly below).
VIX spiked above 24. (above 20 = historically negative for forward returns; RSI on VIX above 70 → sharp rise).
Extreme negative readings in many short-term indicators (Stochastics, CCI, Williams %R, Force Index hitting lower Keltner Band extremes).
NASDAQ-100 Bullish Percent Index at 30 → oversold/extreme negative.
Confirmed Hindenburg Omen still active.
Some minor positive divergences (small tick-ups in a few breadth indicators), hinting at possible buying interest underneath.
Sentiment:
Very pessimistic: intraday CNN Fear & Greed hit single digits (9) intraday but closed at 12, put/call ratios surging, hedging heavy.
Economy / Rates:
Mixed data: initial claims higher than expected (232k), continuing claims rising; factory orders and housing index slightly better.
10-year yield little changed (4.12%).
December rate-cut odds still at about 50/50.
Outlook for Wednesday, Nov 19, 2025:
Much revolves around NVIDIA’s earnings reaction.
Market remains negative short- and intermediate-term until proven otherwise.
Support zone: ~6,573 (S2) and anchored VWAP ~6,517–6,526.
Resistance: 6,650 area.
Seasonality for Nov 19 is mildly negative, and we’re in the usually volatile during Options Expiration week.
Conclusion:
We’re negative short and intermediate, still positive long-term. Momentum is building to the downside, but some oversold readings and minor breadth improvement suggest dip-buyers could step in — especially if NVIDIA delivers or if we get an oversold gap lower. Caution is always warranted either way.