Stephanie Pomboy: Is This The Breaking Point?

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Macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy returns to discuss rising market volatility, record gold & silver prices, concerning failures in the private credit industry & other signs of rising systemic stress.

We talked about the growing stresses becoming increasingly evident in the AI ecosystem, private credit, sovereign debt (Japan), the jobs market, Bitcoin and elsewhere in society and the financial system.

#gold #marketcorrection #artificialintelligence

00:00 - Market cracks appearing
03:03 - Japan JGB yields hit 17-year highs – what it really means
04:04 - The yen carry trade unwind (multi-trillion dollar forced deleveraging)
06:21 - Japan as the template for U.S. fiscal dominance
07:01 - Fiscal dominance explained: interest costs now drive the deficit
07:43 - Fed rate cuts have done nothing to lower long-term rates
08:22 - All developed economies are in the same debt doom loop
10:18 - Central banks will sacrifice the dollar before they let debt service explode
11:50 - End of the fiat-money era likely inside 5 years (possibly much sooner)
14:18 - Race in 2026: stimulus tailwinds vs. reverse wealth effect
17:23 - American Express charge-offs – even the high-end consumer is cracking
20:29 - Can the “One Big Beautiful Bill” and deregulation rescue the economy?
23:36 - Why lower inflation numbers give zero real relief to consumers
25:56 - Real economy (35 million workers) is already recessionary
27:26 - No relief coming on interest rates or prices without a recession
29:11 - The mean vs. median problem – averages hide the pain
31:28 - K-shaped recovery is now political (socialist mayor in NYC as a warning shot)
34:27 - AI sentiment flips in one month – fund managers now fear over-investment
36:15 - Fund managers are talking cautious but hold decade-low cash levels
39:47 - Circular financing and potential fraud in the AI complex
41:10 - Jim Grant’s line: “We’re going to find out all the mischief that takes place at 0%”
42:19 - Private credit implosion begins (Renovo to zero, Blue Owl gates, loan issuance collapses)
45:55 - Next shoe to drop: Business-Purpose Lending (fix-and-flip loans)
48:47 - Base case for 2026: risk-off, negative wealth effect, recession
52:04 - Fed likely cuts in December but it won’t matter
53:36 - Everything now rides on Nvidia earnings – “meet expectations = miss”
56:38 - Bitcoin behaving like a risk asset, not a safe haven
58:03 - Gold flushed out weak hands, now back in strong central-bank hands
59:15 - Foreign central banks (including India) quietly dumping U.S. Treasuries
01:00:35 - Why doesn’t the U.S. just mark its gold to market?
01:03:31 - Stephanie’s current portfolio: gold, miners, energy, tiny cash – no changes
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