21 days ago

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Summary of the Daily Update for Friday, Nov 21, 2025:
Outlook for Monday, Nov 24:
Market Action on Friday:
S&P 500 closed up 0.98% at the 6,603 level after a choppy, options-expiration session (higher open → dip below unchanged → rally on Fed comments → late selling).
Above-average volume due to Options Expiration.
Small- and mid-caps outperformed large-caps slightly; value outperformed growth; equal-weight S&P did better than cap-weighted → defensive tone beneath the surface.
Big-Picture Takeaways:
Long-term trend: Still positive.
Short- and intermediate-term trends: Negative/defensive (price below key MAs, negative breadth/momentum, growth underperforming value).
Key support at 6,600 (psychological + longer-term volume-weighted anchor MA from spring breakout) held on Friday.
VIX down to 23.4 but still above 20 → historically associated with negative annualized returns.
Confirmed Hindenburg Omen still active in the background.
Positive Elements:
Longer-term support levels holding.
Some dovish Fed comments (NY Fed’s John Williams hinted at possible Dec cut) sparked a brief rally.
Extreme put buying on Thursday historically occurs near short-term lows.
Slight improvement in a few breadth measures (e.g., Swenlin Trading Oscillator turning up).
Positive seasonality for the week after Options Expiration and into late November/December (Santa Claus rally period).
Negative/Defensive Elements:
Growth underperforming Value across large-, mid-, and small-caps (growth-to-value ratios still declining).
Discretionary underperforming Staples, tech underperforming, utilities/healthcare leading → clear risk-off rotation.
Most short- and intermediate-term indicators (MACD, PMO, McClellan oscillators, bullish percent indexes, vortex, parabolic SAR, etc.) remain negative.
Smart-money flows (Chaikin Money Flow, etc.) still negative.
TTM Squeeze getting extreme negative.
Economic Data Highlights:
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 51.9 (still expanding but down from 52.5).
Services PMI: 55.0 (improved).
Final U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment: 51 (very low, down YoY from 71.8 → reflects stress heading into holiday shopping season).
Outlook for Monday, Nov 24, 2025:
Holiday-Shortened Week.
Bias remains cautious/negative in the short and intermediate term.
Lighter volume expected (especially Friday after Thanksgiving), which can exaggerate moves.
Positive seasonality is “supposed” to kick in now, but November has been a disappointment so far.
Watching: 6,600 support, possible oversold bounce (extreme put buying, some breadth improvement), but no confirmed shift back to offensive leadership yet.
Any decisive break below 6,600 or the 100-day MA cluster would strengthen the defensive case.
Conclusion:
Friday’s bounce changed very little under the hood. The S&P 500 is still defensive short-term, but longer-term uptrend and key support remain intact. Expect choppy, potentially lighter-volume action this holiday week with risk skewed toward more downside pressure until proven otherwise.