Weekly Update for November 24-28, 2025

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Weekly Market Update Summary for Nov 17–21, 2025)
Overall Tone: Cautious and defensive. The market gave back gains from the strong 2025 rally, with growth and mega-cap/tech stocks leading the decline. Despite a late bounce on Friday (options expiration + dovish Fed comments), breadth and momentum remain weak.
Performance: (Major Indexes)
S&P 500: −1.95% (would have been over −3% without Friday bounce)
NASDAQ: −2.7%
Dow: −1.9%
Russell 2000 (small caps): −0.8% (recovered most losses on Friday)
Mid-caps: −0.7%
Year-to-date: Still solidly positive (S&P +12.3%, NASDAQ 100 leading), but small caps now flat YTD.
Key Themes:
Defensive rotation continues
Leading sectors: Healthcare (strongest), Staples, Communication Services, Utilities
Lagging: Tech, Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Financials, Industrials
Growth/Value ratio weakening; mega-caps (especially NVIDIA post-earnings) under pressure
NVIDIA earnings reaction:
Stellar report and guidance → stock initially +5% after hours → classic “pump-and-dump” on Thursday (finished −3.5% that day, −2.8% for the week)
Dragged tech and major indexes lower
Rate-cut expectations shifting:
Earlier in week: Hawkish Fed speak
Friday: NY Fed’s John Williams opened door to Dec cut → market bounced
CME FedWatch (as of Friday close): 71% chance of 25 bp cut in December (up sharply from earlier in the week)
Technical picture:
Major indexes now below 50-day MAs (intermediate-term bearish shift).
Weekly charts still in uptrends but showing cracks (e.g., ADX red line crossed above green, parabolic SAR flipped negative for first time in months).
Broader market slipped below key moving averages; semiconductors rolling over after extreme overextension.
Sentiment & Breadth:
Sentiment plunged to extremely pessimistic levels (II survey hit 6, then recovered to 11)
VIX spiked above 20 (now 23 range).
Potential setup for a Zweig Breadth Thrust if market can rally strongly in the next 10 trading days.
Macro backdrop:
No major inflation or recession signals.
10-year yield 4.06% (not hurting stocks, yet).
Earnings still strong (S&P 500 net margins highest in 15+ years, revenue growth best in 3 years).
Labor market softening at the margins (longer-term unemployment rising).
Upcoming week (Nov 24–28):
Thanksgiving Thursday → markets closed
Friday: Early close at 1 p.m. ET (very light volume expected).
Positive seasonality historically strong in late November, but so far absent in 2025.
Conclusion: The S&P 500 remains in a corrective/defensive phase after a huge 2025 run from the April lows.
Still possible to bottom and finish the year strong (2018 Christmas Eve mini-crash eventually recovered).
Bigger-picture trend is still up, but short- and intermediate-term momentum has turned negative.
Watching closely for either (1) continuation of weakness or (2) signs of reversal (rate-cut catalyst, breadth thrust, etc.).
Overall:
Risk-off posture persists, but extreme pessimism and still-solid fundamentals/earnings leave room for a year-end rally if sentiment flips.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rGpWewAWpsJSgsq7xE3gV9o7GsLEj03n/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!