InterMarket Analysis Update for Monday November 24, 2025

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Summary of the Intermarket Analysis Update prepared for Monday, Nov 24, 2025:
Big-Picture Takeaway:
The overall trend remains positive/upward for U.S. stocks.
However, the market has clearly shifted into a more defensive posture since late October: growth → value rotation, mega-cap/tech weakness, equal-weight and small/mid-caps holding up relatively better, broader participation narrowing.
Key Themes This Week:
Valuation:
S&P 500 still very expensive (forward P/E 21.6, CAPE 38.9, Mega-Cap 8 P/E 28.8).
Overvaluation is not new and not a good timing tool; earnings growth still justifies high multiples for now.
Small- and mid-caps are the only areas trading near “fair value” (P/Es 14.6–15.6).
Growth vs. Value Rotation (the dominant short-term theme):
Growth indexes/ETFs have broken below 50-day and (briefly) 200-day MAs.
Value holding up much better → classic defensive shift.
Growth/Value ratios across large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap all show the same: longer-term growth still leads, but short-term value is outperforming strongly.
Inflation Signals:
Market is NOT worried about inflation right now.
CRB Index sideways to lower, Baltic Dry rising but not screaming inflation, oil dropping (now $57 range), commodities generally soft.
Inflation-expectations ETF and TIPS ratios drifting lower.
Other Intermarket Highlights:
U.S. dollar: daily chart still downtrend, weekly uptrend → neutral to slightly stronger; a sustained move above 100–101 would pressure stocks.
Bonds: yields mixed but generally drifting lower again; junk bonds showing first death cross vs. treasuries in a while (risk-off signal).
Bitcoin: sharp breakdown from October highs ($126k → $83k), now highly correlated with NASDAQ 100 on the downside.
Semiconductors/AI-related ETFs underperforming tech and the broader market short-term.
Sector and Breadth Notes:
Strongest areas recently: Healthcare (defensive) and Communication Services.
Weakest: Tech, Discretionary, Materials, Real Estate struggling to regain 200-day MAs.
Advance-decline lines improved Friday but still below key MAs → no confirmed breadth turnaround yet.
Upcoming Week:
Holiday-shortened (Thanksgiving Thursday, early close Friday).
Volume likely heavy Monday–Tuesday, then drops off sharply.
Seasonal Santa Claus rally historically starts late November/December, but so far small-caps haven’t participated strongly.
Positive/Negative List (unchanged from prior weeks):
Still overwhelmingly positive on the big-picture list.
Only three negatives: Bitcoin, Japanese yen (vs. USD), and U.S. dollar daily trend.
Conclusion:
Longer-term bull market intact, supported by earnings. Short- to intermediate-term the tone is defensive: growth and mega-cap leadership is cracking, money rotating into value and more defensive sectors. No major trend reversal yet, but continued weakness in growth/value ratios and breadth would raise the risk level. Watching for either (1) a bounce that reasserts growth leadership or (2) further deterioration that threatens the bigger-picture uptrends.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1saTf_32RduWYhzO_5_OKKFf2-kmaSzw7/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!