Deep Dive Update for Monday November 24, 2025

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Summary of the Deep Dive Video Update for Monday, Nov 24, 2025:
This is a comprehensive weekly technical review of the current market environment after a sharp Thursday decline followed by a partial Friday recovery.
Takeaway:
Big-picture trend remains bullish, but short-term weakness has intensified, defensiveness is rising, and several longer-term warning signs are starting to flicker. So far, it still looks like a normal pullback inside a bull market, not the start of a bear market — but vigilance is required.
Key points from the dozens of charts shown:
VIX & Fear Gauges:
Long-term 50-period EMA of VIX is turning up but still below 20 → no confirmed regime shift to sustained higher volatility yet.
VIX momentum (MACD) rising, short-term RSI came off overbought after Thursday’s spike.
VIX/VVIX and Stock/Bond volatility ratios turning higher → increasing fear and stock-specific volatility.
Market Internals & Breadth:
S&P -5.6% off all-time high intraday, -4.2% on a closing basis → normal pullback territory so far (If over 10% = correction).
NYSE A/D line vs S&P showing minor weakness but no major divergence yet.
Percent of S&P stocks above 50-day MA still below 50% (negative), above 200-day bounced back above 50% on Friday.
10-day and broader 5-day high/low averages still negative or weakening.
Short-term Trend:
Daily and intermediate-term rainbows have rolled over; price now below the key 20-period and 50-period MAs.
Short/intermediate A/D ratios below zero.
Closed below lower Bollinger Band on Thursday (rare), but quickly recovered.
Leadership & Sector Rotation:
Large caps still outperforming small caps (ratio rising again after a brief dip on Friday’s rate-cut hope).
Growth vs Value, Discretionary vs Staples, Tech vs Utilities all weakening → clear defensive rotation continues.
Small caps, mid-caps, regional banks, semiconductors, homebuilders, retail all bounced Friday but remain in longer-term relative downtrends or sideways.
Long-term Trend (still intact): Well above 200-day SMA; long-term rainbow, Special K, weekly/monthly charts still bullish.
No major negative divergences yet on the very long-term indicators.
Other Notable Observations:
Bonds vs stocks: market not worried about inflation or rates (ratios declining).
Transports sideways, banks below 50-day MA, regional banks still vulnerable.
International (DAX, emerging markets) neutral to weak.
Gold/S&P ratio inching up but still below resistance.
Value Line Geometric showing long-term negative divergence (lower high in 2025 while S&P made higher high).
Conclusion:
“We’re in a short-term downtrend with increasing defensiveness and some longer-term caution flags starting to rise, but the primary bull market trend is still up. This still looks like a healthy pullback so far. If we approach –10% from the high (or see more internals and leadership deteriorate further), the risk of something bigger increases — but we’re not there yet.”

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qz2mkmjP4-vnMN9HqiNQjo8-PLg3w6MG/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!