18 days ago

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Summary of the Daily Market Update for Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025:
Outlook for Wednesday, Nov 26, 2025:
Overall Market Tone:
The S&P 500 is improving technically and is now positive across all three timeframes (short, intermediate, long-term).
Closed +0.91% at 6,766–6,769, getting close to all-time highs again.
Recovery: about 3.9–4% off last Thursday’s drop (Fri +0.98%, Mon +1.5%, Tue +0.91%).
Gains are holding into the close — no strong selling conviction.
Volume below average (expected in Thanksgiving week); Wednesday likely light, Friday half-day (can be choppy or thin-volume driven).
Key Technical Improvements:
Recaptured 20- and 50-day MAs → short- and intermediate-term bias flipped back to positive.
Parabolic SAR flipped bullish, ADX turned positive (though still weak below 20, so not trending).
Back above the Ichimoku cloud, 50-day MA on most major indexes.
VIX back below 20 (18.56) — calmer market.
Sentiment & Breadth:
Still a confirmed Hindenburg Omen in the background (bearish warning).
Sentiment improving but still “extreme negative” zone (16).
AAII and other surveys still net bearish; put/call ratios rising (some hedging possibly ahead of long weekend).
Internals improving: advancing issues picking up, new highs expanding, McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index turning positive.
Sectors:
Defensive leadership: Healthcare +10% in November alone (new 4-year high), staples and utilities stronger.
Value outperforming growth; small- and mid-caps outperforming large-caps on Tuesday (rate-cut sensitive).
Tech and semis lagging (NVIDIA weak again); growth underperforming value intraday.
Rates & Macro:
10-year yield back to 4.00% (helping equities).
Markets now pricing in higher probability of a December Fed rate cut after more dovish FOMC comments.
Dollar weakened (DXY below 100), supportive for stocks.
Mixed economic data Tuesday (weaker consumer confidence, softer retail sales, in-line PPI, weaker housing data), but market largely ignored it.
Risks / Cautions:
Holiday-thinned trading → possible low conviction, potential for whipsaws.
Growth/value and discretionary/staples ratios still negative short-term.
Overhead resistance: round numbers (6,700–6,800), prior pivot highs, Fibonacci levels.
Persistent Hindenburg Omen and momentum oscillators improving but still negative.
Outlook for Wednesday, Nov 26, 2025:
Bias positive on all timeframes, but low-volume holiday mode = limited conviction.
Positive pre-Thanksgiving and post-election year seasonality since 2002.
Any geopolitical headline (Russia/Ukraine peace talk progress) could spark upside.
Markets closed Thursday, early close 1 p.m. ET Friday.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 has flipped back to technically positive, reclaimed key moving averages, and is benefiting from renewed December rate-cut optimism and lower yields. Gains are defensive-led with thinner volume on Tuesday. Near-term direction lacks strong conviction heading into the long Thanksgiving weekend; expect choppy, low-volume action unless a major headline hits, or a big player decides to buy or sell.