Daily Update Podcast for Friday November 28, 2025

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Summary of the Daily Market Update for Wednesday, November 26, 2025:
Outlook for Friday, Nov 28, 2025:
Overall Tone:
Cautiously optimistic. The S&P 500 is recovering well, sitting near all-time highs, with improving breadth and technicals, but leadership remains narrow and defensive (value outperforming growth). Price action is positive but repeated flags show the lack of aggressive growth leadership as the main risk.
Price Action – Wednesday Nov 26 S&P 500: +0.69%, closed slightly above R1 (6,808), briefly topped 6,800 early.
Broad-based advance with tech and semiconductors finally participating (encouraging)
Low volume (pre-holiday) – no real selling into the close, just quiet drifting.
S&P 500 positive on short-, intermediate-, and long-term time frames.
Key Positives:
Back above key 6,800–6,808 zone with gamma support.
Growing conviction for a December Fed rate cut (market pricing it in).
Small-caps, mid-caps, financials, and rate-sensitive areas (Real Estate, utilities) rallying on lower yield/rate-cut hopes.
10-year yield falling below 4% again.
Breadth improving: A/D line, new highs expanding, smart-money indicators all positive.
Potential (unconfirmed) Zweig Breadth Thrust in progress – needs a strong advance by Dec 5.
Most fear gauges declining (VIX below 20, put/call falling on daily, gamma exposure green).
Seasonality remains favorable into year-end.
Key Concerns / Yellow Flags:
Growth still underperforming value on a ratio basis (growth/value, discretionary/staples both weak and threatening death crosses)
Market advance still driven by a relatively narrow group; About 35% of S&P 500 stocks remain in individual bear markets (more than 20% off highs).
Confirmed Hindenburg Omen still active (since Oct 10).
Short- and intermediate-term trends not yet trending upward (below MAs, lower highs on bars).
Momentum in growth areas (especially mega-cap tech) remains mixed to negative.
Economic Data Highlights (mostly positive):
Initial jobless claims 216k (better than 225k expected).
Continuing claims still below 2M but in higher sideways range.
Durable goods +0.5% (beat), core capital goods strong.
Chicago PMI weak at 36.3 (miss) – only real soft spot
Beige Book: nothing dramatic.
GDP and inflation dynamics still favorable (growth up, inflation down).
Sectors:
Only healthcare closed red (profit-taking after big November run).
Tech, discretionary, communication, financials, industrials, utilities all green.
Semiconductors finally outperforming tech again (positive sign).
Small- and mid-cap growth/value ratios improving but still weak.
Friday Outlook (Nov 28 – half-day, closes 1 p.m. ET):
Seasonality mixed to slightly negative for the day-after-Thanksgiving.
Options expiration (early close).
Very light volume expected.
Conclusion:
“We’re positive on all time frames and repairing the recent damage, but the market is still acting defensively. We need to see growth decisively outperform value again (especially after the holiday) to confirm a more offensive, sustainable rally. Until then, remain cautious on aggressive long exposure.”