S&P 500 Daily Update for Monday December 1, 2025

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Summary of the Daily Market Update for Friday, Nov 28, 2025:
Outlook for Monday December 1, 2025:
Black Friday half-day
Overall Market Tone:
Quiet, low-volume Black Friday session (early close, holiday week).
S&P 500 up +0.54%, closed just below the key 6850 round number.
The S&P 500 remains in a short-term bounce from the Nov 20–21 lows, now less than 1% from all-time highs.
Bias: Mixed-to-Positive. Positive on all three time frames (short, intermediate, long), but still not strongly trending (ADX weak) and the rally remains defensive in character.
Key Positives:
Price action holding above all major moving averages (20, 50, 200).
Strong short-term momentum: StochRSI, Stochastics, Williams %R, McClellan Oscillator, PMO, CMB all positive with many already extreme positive.
Breadth improving: A/D line at new highs (price-led), smart-money indicators (Chaikin MF, Vortex, Accumulation/Distribution) all green.
Sentiment still very pessimistic (Below 25, put/call 5-day) → possible contrarian bullish fuel.
Weaker dollar (USD under 100) and renewed December rate-cut hopes supporting risk assets.
Seasonality strongly favorable for December (74% up since 1950, potential Santa Claus rally ahead).
Potential Zweig Breadth Thrust still alive (must trigger by Dec 5 → would be very bullish if it fires).
Key Concerns / Yellow Flags:
Persistent growth underperformance (large-cap growth lagging; tech/comms/discretionary not leading).
Market character remains defensive: Health Care (up almost 10% in Nov), Energy, Staples, leading in the short-term → defensive/rotation theme.
Hindenburg Omen remains confirmed and active since October (bearish distribution signal still valid).
Short-term readings getting stretched/overbought (McClellan, PMO, Stochastics, distance from 20-MA).
Valuations elevated and deviating further above long-term earnings trend.
No real trend strength yet (ADX still low).
What to Watch Next Week: Starting Monday, Dec 1, 2025:
Monday 8 p.m. ET: Jerome Powell speech (tone on Dec rate cut critical).
Key data: ISM Manufacturing (Monday), JOLTS, ADP, Non-Farm Payrolls (delayed).
Can growth stocks (Magnificent 7, semis, discretionary) finally take leadership?
Will 6850 round number and monthly R1/R2 pivots act as resistance or be cleared?
Zweig Breadth Thrust deadline: Friday, Dec 5.
Conclusion:
“Market is acting fine on the surface — higher highs, higher lows, momentum improving, seasonality tailwind — but underneath the hood it’s still defensive. Growth needs to step up and lead decisively, or this rally may be at risk and vulnerable. For now, price is king and it’s pointing up, but respect the yellow flags (Hindenburg, growth lag, overbought readings) and stay nimble.”

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/181bJOOU-T8ATRp0ZfhoS_IQzbBOIO4yd/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!