Weekly Update for December 1-5, 2025

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Summary of the Weekly Market Update (Nov 24–28, 2025):
Outlook for December 1-5, 2025:
Overall Tone:
The S&P 500 staged a sharp and impressive rebound last week after looking very weak and potentially headed lower just a week ago. The primary driver was a clear shift from hawkish to dovish Fed commentary from several Fed speakers, reviving strong expectations for a 25 bp rate cut at the December meeting.
Performance (short Thanksgiving week – 4 trading days):
S&P 500: +3.73%. NASDAQ: +4.9%. Dow: +3.2%. Russell 2000: +5.5% (small caps led, love the idea of easier money). Semiconductors: +9.7%. All 11 sectors finished higher.
Key Market Drivers:
Potential Fed pivot: After Powell’s initially hawkish post-meeting comments, several governors and regional presidents made more dovish comments→ market now prices 86% chance of a December cut (up dramatically from a week ago).
Jerome Powell speaks again Monday evening (Dec 1) after the close → high focus event.
Upcoming data: Core PCE on Friday (Dec 5) will be critical for final confirmation of the December cut.
Technical Picture:
Major indexes reclaimed their 50-day moving averages → intermediate-term trend flipped back to positive.
S&P 500 short-term trend also positive again (above 20-day MA).
ADX trend strength flipped back to positive but remains weak and choppy.
Advance-Decline line hit an all-time high on price × volume → very bullish breadth.
Potential Zweig NYSE Breadth Thrust by Dec 5 (10-day window) → if triggered would be strongly bullish for the next 6–12 months.
Hindenburg Omen still active in the background (negative warning).
Leadership Rotation:
The S&P 500 is still leaning defensive shorter-term (healthcare +9.1% in November, utilities strong).
Growth vs. Value and Discretionary vs. Staples ratios have not yet turned decisively higher.
Small/mid-caps and cyclicals had a great week but remain in long-term ranges — no breakout yet.
Sentiment:
Very negative a week ago → now washed out and improving (AAII bears still elevated, VIX dropped sharply).
Put/Call ratios and most fear gauges improving.
Rates & Macro:10-year yield 4.02% (briefly dipped below 4% mid-week).
Dollar index back below 100 → tailwind for stocks.
Gold +60% YTD, silver +13% in the last week alone.
Outlook:
Cautiously constructive. The bounce has been strong and breadth is excellent, but leadership is still mixed/defensive.
Key upcoming catalysts:
Powell speech Monday night
Core PCE Friday
Possible breadth thrust confirmation by Dec 5
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 flipped from looking ugly to solidly positive in one week, largely on revived December rate-cut hopes. Trend indicators are now mostly green again, but leadership remains defensive and a few yellow caution flags (Hindenburg Omen, overbought short-term readings) are still flying. Watching this week’s data and Powell closely.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dP0Zi8AuOxJ8JQfWVqgeWKtTuzxVQiqJ/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!