What to Watch Update for Monday December 1, 2025

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Summary of the "What to Watch" Weekend Video Update for Monday December 1, 2025:
Overall Context:
The S&P 500 just had a strong holiday-shortened week, up 3.7% and recovering much of the prior 5–6% pullback. The bounce was fueled by shifting Fed rhetoric — several FOMC members (including the NY Fed president) opened the door to a possible December rate cut after Powell initially sounded cautious. The key question now: Will growth stocks resume leadership, or will the rally remain narrow and value/defensive-driven?
Positives (a lot of them):
S&P reclaimed the 50-day MA, 20-day MA, and possible above December pivot point.
Short-, intermediate-, and long-term trend indicators flipped back to positive.
Multiple moving-average studies (10/20/30, 50, 100, 200) all supportive again.
Momentum oscillators (TTM Squeeze monthly, Smart Money indicators, Vortex, etc.) turned positive.
Market breadth improving: A/D line at all-time highs, McClellan Oscillator getting extreme positive, NYSE summation index rising.
Sentiment extremely negative → now possibly acting as contrarian bullish fuel.
VIX back below 20 and falling.
Small caps, mid-caps, regional banks, semiconductors, and most major indexes recaptured their 50-day MAs.
Risk-on ratios (stocks/bonds, high-beta/low-beta, etc.) turning back up.
Potential Zweig Breadth Thrust by Dec 5th (very bullish if triggered).
Seasonal tailwinds: December historically strong, especially second half (Santa Claus rally).
Negatives (mainly one big theme):
Growth dramatically underperforming value.
S&P Growth/Value ratio still declining while the index rises.
Large-cap, mid-cap, and overall growth indexes remain below declining moving averages.
QQQ/SPY, discretionary/staples, momentum stocks all lagging.
FAANG index and big tech not leading the bounce yet.
Volume very light (holiday week + half-day Friday), not confirming the price surge.
Some indicators getting stretched/overbought short-term (Boom, rate-of-change, McClellan Oscillator above 60, etc.).
Weekly Parabolic SAR still negative.
Hindenburg Omen remains active (bearish warning from October still on the table).
Watch List:
10-year yield flirting with 4% again (not a problem yet).
Dollar weakened below 100 (helping stocks for now).
Jobless claims and credit spreads still okay, nothing alarming.
Transports, homebuilders, retail, biotech mixed but generally stabilizing.
Conclusion:
The technical picture has improved dramatically in one week and the majority of indicators are now bullish again. The big caveat is the continued growth vs. value divergence — the rally is currently being led by value/defensive sectors. For the bounce to have legs and push toward new highs (Weekly R2 pivot 7,000), growth and big-cap tech need to step up and take leadership soon. If they don’t, the advance remains vulnerable despite all the short-term positive signals. Key thing to watch this coming week: Do growth/value ratios start turning up, or does the underperformance persist?

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Qm1NpI9rT5rCJHKFFx5O-VyQwSSHIG_V/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!