S&P 500 Daily Update for Wednesday December 3, 2025

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Summary of the Daily Market Update for Tuesday, December 2, 2025:
Outlook for Wednesday December 3, 2025:
Overall Market Tone:
Very quiet, non-trending, low-conviction day. S&P 500 up 0.25% with below-average volume.
Opened at R1 (6,838), hit resistance at the 6,850 round number, dipped to the unchanged line (support), chopped around, and closed just below R1 (6,829).
Still no trend per ADX on any timeframe, though directionally positive on short, intermediate, and long-term.
Key Positives:
Short- and intermediate-term momentum improving (Stochastics, PMO crossing up, TTM Squeeze positive.).
Tech and semiconductors outperformed (SMH +1.83%, bullish MACD crossover in XLK, BPI above 50).
Mega-caps mostly green; Apple hit a new all-time high.
Breadth still constructive (McClellan Oscillators and Summation Indexes above zero, Bullish Percent Indexes rising).
Possible Zweig Breadth Thrust confirmation by Friday (very bullish if achieved).
Seasonality turns more positive into mid/late December.
Gamma exposure supportive.
Key Concerns / Negatives:
Growth continues to significantly underperform value (large-, mid-, and to a lesser extent small-cap growth/value ratios all weak).
Discretionary vs. Staples ratio still ST negative.
Confirmed Hindenburg Omen remains in effect (since October).
Chaikin Oscillator and Vortex turned negative; Swenlin Trading Oscillator now negative.
Market remains overvalued (forward P/E 22.7), heavily concentrated (top 10 stocks = 41% of market cap), and greater than 10% above 200-day MA (historically a zone where larger pullbacks become more likely).
10-year yield ticked lower but still watching for any move back toward 4.5%.
Other Notable Points:
No economic data released Tuesday (ADP and JOLTS were expected but didn’t come out).
Wednesday brings a heavy data slate: ADP Employment, ISM Services, JOLTS, Factory Orders.
Bitcoin attempting a rebound; correlation with NASDAQ 100 has weakened but still worth monitoring.
Dollar weak, unable to reclaim 100; oil sliding into the $68s.
Sentiment gauges mixed: daily put/call improving, but longer-term sentiment still complacent/extreme positive. Short-Term remains extreme negative, below 25.
Outlook for Wednesday December 3, 2025:
No major change in the big-picture view.
Short & intermediate term: Positive but not trending; momentum picking up slightly.
Long term: Positive but extended and overvalued.
Market remains in a “show me” phase — needs either (1) growth leadership to reassert itself and a breadth thrust, or (2) upcoming data/geopolitical developments to shake it out of this low-conviction chop.
Conclusion:
Overall bias remains cautiously optimistic into year-end seasonality, but multiple yellow/red flags (growth/value, Hindenburg Omen, overvaluation, defensive rotation) is keeping the S&P 500 from being aggressively bullish.

PDF of Slides:
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!