Daily Update Podcast for Wednesday December 3, 2025

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Summary of the Daily Update from Monday, December 1st, 2025:
Outlook for Tuesday, December 2nd, 2025:
Market Performance – Monday, Dec 1S&P 500: –0.53% (closed 6815–6820 area), basically gave back Friday’s post-Thanksgiving gain.
Very low conviction day: opened lower (Bitcoin overnight sell-off dragged futures), dipped to S2 (6809), briefly poked above the daily pivot (6840), but never turned positive on the day. Closed just above S2.
Volume: below average (picked up a little but still light).
Nasdaq and tech relatively flat to slightly down; small- and mid-caps gave back some of last week’s gains.
Dow actually underperformed the S&P on a percentage basis.
Big Picture Tone:
Still bullish on all three time frames (short, intermediate, long-term) based on price vs. moving averages.
However, no clear trend right now — ADX below 20 and below its MA → market is choppy.
Strategy remains market-neutral / hedged until we see real conviction (either way).
Key Concerns / Yellow Flags:
Growth continues to underperform Value (ongoing since summer). This is the main reason for being cautious — strong bull markets need growth leading.
Small-caps & mid-caps bounced back to the top of multi-month ranges but have not broken out — risk of another fake-out.
Confirmed Hindenburg Omen still active (initial signal Oct 10 + confirmations).
Discretionary/Staples and other risk-on ratios remain weak or flat.
Positive / Supporting Factors:
Almost triggered a Zweig Breadth Thrust (needs another strong advance day by Dec 5 to confirm). Even if it doesn’t officially trigger, the sharp rebound last week was very bullish historically.
McClellan Oscillator went from –55 to +68 in one week → mini-thrust with very strong forward returns.
Breadth, bullish percent indexes, summation indexes, most momentum oscillators still positive or improving.
Sentiment still extremely pessimistic on daily basis (24) → contrarian bullish.
Rate-cut pricing flipped back heavily toward December cut (after briefly shifting to January).
Magnificent-7 and semis still in long-term uptrends, just not leading aggressively right now.
Intermarket Notes:
Bitcoin dropped hard overnight (under 90k); correlation with Nasdaq 100 weakening again.
10-year yield ↑ to 4.10% (small rise, not alarming yet).
Oil up slightly after OPEC+ decided to keep production steady into 2026.
Dollar index still under 100 (mildly supportive for stocks).
Tuesday, Dec 2, 2025 Outlook:
Economic calendar light (JOLTS job openings), so likely another low-volume, range-bound day unless news/geopolitics flares.
Seasonality mildly negative for Dec 2 specifically, but December overall is historically a bullish month (73–74% green since 1950, avg +1.4%).
Conclusion:
“Still structurally bullish, but the market is vulnerable until growth reasserts leadership and we get a real trend. Until then, staying hedged/neutral is prudent. A confirmed Zweig Breadth Thrust or strong growth rotation would flip the tone aggressively bullish.”