S&P 500 Daily Update for Thursday December 4, 2025

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Summary of the Daily Market Update for Wednesday, Dec 3, 2025:
Outlook for Thursday, Dec 4, 2025:
Overall Tone:
A quiet, mildly positive but lethargic day. The market remains in a “default bullish” mode on all timeframes (short, intermediate, long), but lacks conviction and is not trending. Growth continues to significantly underperform value, keeping large-cap/mega-cap leadership absent.
Wednesday’s Price Action (S&P 500): Opened lower at 6810 (set intraday low early), Recovered above the daily pivot (6829) and R1 (6852), Hit resistance near 6860, faded into the close.
Closed +0.3% at 6850 on below-average (but improving) volume.
Still above 20/50/200-day MAs → technically bullish.
Key Themes & Concerns: The Markets are pricing in a near-certain Fed rate cut next week. No cut would be a major negative shock.
Growth underperforming Value (ongoing since last summer) → defensive rotation; mega-caps not leading but holding up.
Conflicting big-picture breadth signals: Confirmed Hindenburg Omen (bearish, triggered Oct → confirmed since).
Unconfirmed Zweig/NYSE Breadth Thrust (needs confirmation by Friday, Dec 5).
Bitcoin rebounding from 30% drawdown; mild positive spillover to Nasdaq 100 (correlation strengthening slightly).
Economic Data Highlights (Wed): ADP Private Payrolls: –32k (big miss vs +20k expected) → increases odds of rate cut.
ISM Services PMI: 52.6 (slightly better than expected, still expanding).
Capacity Utilization: 75.9% (below expected 77.3%) → slack helps inflation outlook.
10-yr Yield dipped to 4.06%.
Technical & Sentiment Takeaways: Short-term momentum decent (Stochastics, Williams%R, StochRSI positive).
Volume picking up but still sub-par.
VIX and fear gauges drifting lower (fear leaving the market).
Sentiment no longer extremely bearish but still negative.
Smart-money flow indicators turned back positive Wednesday.
Advance-decline line and new highs expanding; internals healthy.
Sector & Index Snapshot: Discretionary and Tesla strong (+4% on Tesla helped)
Tech mixed to weak (MSFT –2.5%, NVDA –1%, Meta weak).
Small caps and value areas outperforming large cap growth.
Outlook for Thursday, Dec 4, 2025:
Data: Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims, Trade Balance (minor)
Friday is the big one: Core PCE.
Seasonality mildly positive (especially Nasdaq).
Near-term resistance: R1 pivot ~6870–6880 area
Bias remains positive but trendless until mega-cap growth reasserts leadership with rate-cut expectations fulfilled.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is “sleepy but positive,” fully expecting a December rate cut. Lack of growth leadership and mixed big-picture signals are keeping things choppy and defensive. No strong directional conviction until either the Fed delivers or growth decisively re-accelerates. Default stance: cautiously bullish, watching next week’s Fed meeting closely.

PDF of Slides:
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!