Fractured Alliances: Why the New Middle East Order Is Dangerously Unstable

11 days ago
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The Gulf states face a complex geopolitical crossroads as they navigate tensions between maintaining their strategic alliance with Washington, managing unprecedented public resentment toward Israel, and pursuing economic diversification with China and other powers. While officially maintaining ties with Israel through the Abraham Accords, Gulf governments struggle to balance elite-level strategic interests against widespread public anger over Gaza and Palestinian suffering. Simultaneously, they're leveraging their financial clout to reshape the regional order—investing billions in Syria and Lebanon, hedging with Beijing, and seeking security guarantees from the US. Israel's unpredictable military actions and the weakening of Iran have created an unstable tri-pillar regional architecture where Gulf states act as power brokers despite limited military capabilities. The outcome is a fragmented Middle East where traditional alliances persist but lack coherence, public opinion constrains elite decision-making, and no clear winners have emerged.

About David:
Dr. Oualaalou served a combined fifteen-year career in the United States Armed Forces & US government security agencies globally. His roles encompassed security policy, intelligence analysis, and advisory positions in leadership and managerial operations. He provided counsel on security issues, economic trends, and foreign military threats to high-profile U.S. military and civilian officials. Dr. Oualaalou is also an accomplished author, with numerous articles and books, including his latest, *Volatile State: Iran in the Nuclear Age*.

Link to Articles:
https://www.arabbarometer.org/media-news/press-release-foreign-affairs-article-how-arab-public-opinion-constrains-normalization-with-israel/
https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2024-02/gulf-states-have-power-revive-two-state-solution
https://2021-2025.state.gov/joint-statement-following-the-ministerial-meeting-of-the-united-states-and-the-gulf-cooperation-council-gcc-3/
https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2025/07/how-washington-could-leverage-its-gulf-ai-deals.html
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/gulf-navigates-multipolar-world

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