US EQUITY MARKET, TODAY

Mildly bullish short-term, with potential for gains if PCE aligns dovishly. Expect a higher open (S&P to ~6,865, up 0.1-0.3%; Nasdaq stronger on tech), but intraday volatility around data—cooler inflation could push S&P to 6,880+ (0.3-0.5% gain), while hotter might erase gains to flat/close down 0.2%.30636d Probability: 55% net positive close (Fed optimism), 30% flat, 15% down (inflation surprise). Upside from small-caps/tech; downside capped unless geopolitics spike. Longer-term, 2025 forecasts see S&P ~7,000+ end-year on earnings recovery, but volatility from policy/geopoliticd.

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