Daily Update Podcast for Monday December 8, 2025

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Market Update for Friday, December 5, 2025:
Outlook for Monday December 8, 2025:
Overall Market Action (Friday, Dec 5, 2025):
S&P 500 opened higher, briefly broke above R1 (6873) and R2 (6890), but momentum fizzled.
Gave back most early gains, chopped sideways, closed +0.19% at 6870 (just below R1).
Very low conviction, below-average volume again.
Never went negative on the day but never showed real consistent strength either.
Tone & Bias:
Still bullish on all three time frames (short, intermediate, long-term).
Market is in a basically non-trending / low-conviction grind higher rather than a strong trending move.
No major breakdown; internals remain mostly constructive.
Key Positives:
Broke above recent overhead resistance (6860).
Breadth improving (Advance-Decline oscillator pushing extreme positive territory, new highs expanding).
Sentiment improving (from very pessimistic levels in November).
Most momentum indicators positive or turning positive.
Smart money flows mostly supportive (two of three indicators still green).
Equity ETF inflows strong, systematic selling pressure has faded.
Earnings estimates being revised higher (unusual and bullish).
Fed rate-cut next week still fully priced in and considered a “done deal.”
Lingering Concerns / Yellow Flags:
Growth continues to underperform Value (especially large-cap and mid-cap).
No real leadership from the usual growth sectors (only sporadic strength).
Confirmed Hindenburg Omen still in the background (becoming less relevant with each passing day, but still noted).
Unconfirmed Zweig Breadth Thrust likely expires without confirmation (not bearish, just removes a strong bullish signal).
Market greater than 10% above 200-day SMA → statistically overextended (mean-reversion risk).
10-year yield rising again (4.14%, up sharply from 3.99% pre-Thanksgiving).
Chaikin Oscillator flipped negative (one of the three “smart money” indicators).
Economic Data Released Friday:
Core PCE came in cooler than expected (+0.2% vs +0.3%) → initial bounce, then ignored.
Personal spending softer than expected.
Overall data mixed but did nothing to derail December rate-cut expectations.
Sector & Index Notes:
Communication Services led on Friday (Google, Meta strong).
Small caps (Russell 2000) gave back some of Thursday’s new all-time high.
Semiconductors and Big Tech mostly flat to slightly down.
Netflix weakness possibly foreshadowed rumored Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition.
Outlook for Monday, Dec 8, 2025:
No major economic reports on Monday.
Fed meeting Wednesday (rate cut expected + press conference).
Seasonality positive for Dec 8; December overall historically stronger in the back half.
Nearest upside target: 6900–6950 (gamma wall).
Nearest support: 6800 (round number + heavy strike concentration).
Still only 0.3% away from a new all-time closing high on the S&P 500.
Conclusion:
Low-conviction grind higher continues. The S&P 500 is acting tired and overextended but refuses to break down. Bulls remain in control on all time frames, but leadership is narrow and conviction is lacking. A decisive break above 6900–6950 with growth re-asserting itself would reinvigorate the uptrend; continued chopping or growth underperformance keeps the risk of a deeper pullback alive. Bias stays cautiously bullish with a very short leash.