Weekly Update for December 8-12, 2025

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Weekly Market Update Summary for Dec 1–5, 2025:
Overall Market Performance:
Modest up week: S&P 500 +0.31%, Dow +0.5%, NASDAQ +0.9%, Russell 2000 +0.8%.
Russell 2000 hit a new all-time high on Thursday (small caps leading).
Market remains constructive and positive, grinding higher with low/below-average volume.
No strong trend yet, but all major time frames remain bullish (price above key moving averages).
Key Themes & Observations:
Leadership shifting: Large-cap growth no longer clearly dominating. Value, cyclicals, and small/mid-caps are catching up or outperforming on a relative basis.
Small caps and high-beta stocks showing strength (“risk-on” tone improving).
Semiconductors strong (+3.8% on the week), mega-caps mixed but supportive on good days.
Defensive sectors (utilities, staples, healthcare) lagged or saw profit-taking.
Growth vs. Value ratio not improving despite year-to-date growth dominance — possible character change in the market rather than a red flag for now.
Rates & Macro:
10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.02% to 4.11% — unusual lately ahead of an expected Fed cut (normally yields have been falling into the meetings).
Core PCE came in slightly cooler than expected (market-friendly), but yields still climbed.
Strong drop in initial jobless claims and other data showing the economy remains solid.
Market pricing: 86% chance of a 25 bps cut at the Dec FOMC meeting (Dec 10 announcement), only 65% chance of another cut in January.
Technical Picture:
S&P 500 chopping sideways-to-higher just below major overhead resistance (7,000 pivot).
Breadth healthy: new highs expanding, advance-decline line strong, bullish percent indexes rising.
Most indicators positive on weekly charts; daily charts showing some short-term weakening/rolling over in momentum oscillators.
Seasonality strongly favorable through year-end (Santa Claus rally, January effect historically helps small caps).
Sentiment:
Mixed but leaning optimistic: AAII and Investors Intelligence neutral-to-bullish, active managers very allocated (98.6% in equities — extreme but still room to go higher).
VIX declining and well under 20 → complacency but not alarmingly so.
Outlook for the Coming Week 0f Dec 8–12, 2025: Fed meeting (Wed) is the main event — 25 bps cut widely expected and mostly priced in.
Market technically repaired prior damage and looks solid, but lacks strong upside conviction so far.
Small caps and cyclicals in favor; watch whether post-Fed reaction can push the S&P convincingly through 7,000.
Risks: rising yields, any hawkish surprise from Powell, or failure of breadth/momentum to confirm new highs.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 remains in an uptrend with positive seasonality and no major technical damage. Leadership is broadening beyond mega-cap growth, which is healthy longer-term even if it feels less exciting day-to-day. Risk-on in favor — the Fed decision and year-end rally attempt are the next big tests.

PDF of Slides:
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!