Deep Dive Update for Monday December 8, 2025

FREE and IMMEDIATE ACCESS to all posts for December, 2025!

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Link to The Daily Pivot Newsletter: https://thedailypivotnewsletter.substack.com/

Link to Video-Only Immediate Access:
https://spxvideos.substack.com/

Summary of the Deep Dive Video Update for Monday, Dec 8, 2025:
A large set of secondary/in-depth charts that don’t normally appear in the daily updates are analyzed. The goal is to get a broader, calmer look at market health rather than react to day-to-day noise.
Overall Conclusion:
The S&P 500 remains in an uptrend and generally positive. Breadth, momentum, volatility, and most internal indicators are supportive or improving. No major breakdowns or extreme readings are flashing warnings. The tone is cautiously bullish heading into the widely-expected 25 bp Fed rate cut this week.
Key Takeaways by Category:
Volatility (VIX complex): Long-Term VIX still in the low range (below 20) → bullish for stocks. VIX momentum and short-term RSI declining → positive. Stock-vs-bond volatility ratio and several proprietary VIX studies are rolling over in a bullish way (fear subsiding relative to bonds). Skew index is rising but not yet in the danger/red zone.
Sentiment & Fear Measures:
Custom mutual-fund-based “fear gauge,” The Ulcer Index, has dropped sharply as the market rose → sentiment no longer extremely fearful.
Volatility Risk Premium and VIX-S&P correlation studies are quiet or low (no hidden fear).
Market Breadth & Participation:
S&P advance-decline lines (price & volume) making new highs even though the index itself hasn’t yet. NYSE A/D line has flattened but still above its MA.
Percent of stocks above 50-day and 200-day MAs rising and comfortably and above 50%.
Broad-market high-low index climbing → positive.
Leadership & Style Rotation:
Small caps (Russell 2000) are outperforming large caps again → ratio rolling over lower (bullish).
Momentum stocks have stopped underperforming and are starting to improve.
Large-cap growth is positive but no longer dominating the way it has for years.
Transports, regional banks, retail, biotech, and semiconductors all showing recent strength or bounces.
Trend & Moving-Average Studies:
Short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term “rainbow” MAs all sloping up.
Price quickly bounced from the 100-day MA in November and is now well above the 20-, 50-, and 100-day MAs.
No extreme overstretched “boom indicator” readings.
Ichimoku cloud, Bollinger %B, Connors RSI, Special K, all supportive or neutral.
Rates & Macro Context:
Expected 25 bp Fed cut this week is already priced in.
Small caps and rate-sensitive sectors like the idea of lower rates while the economy is still strong (positive context, not “rescue” cuts).
2-year yields making lower highs (bullish for equities).
International & Sector Notes:
U.S. stocks continue to outperform most international markets.
Value Line Geometric still has a long-term negative divergence (hasn’t made new high since 2021) → being monitored but not breaking down yet.
Bonds and stocks have slightly decoupled recently (bonds weaker while stocks rise) → worth watching.
Near-Term Price Action:
S&P 500 is only 0.6% from an all-time closing high.
Recent November pullback was normal (5.6%) and has been fully recovered with little conviction but no real selling pressure either.
Conclusion:
Everything is either positive or quietly improving. There are no screaming sell signals, breadth is strong, volatility is low and declining, and leadership is broadening. The market looks healthy heading into the Fed meeting and the December/January seasonally strong period. The S&P 500 remains bullish until proven otherwise.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oaX2ZoZO1YfLSXLSfeJTRwcvMZ7QFcgr/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!