Daily Update Podcast for Tuesday December 9, 2025

FREE and IMMEDIATE ACCESS to all posts for December, 2025!

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Link to The Daily Pivot Newsletter: https://thedailypivotnewsletter.substack.com/

Link to Video-Only Immediate Access:
https://spxvideos.substack.com/

Daily Market Update for Monday, Dec 8, 2025:
Outlook for Tuesday, Dec 9, 2025:
Overall Tone & Bias:
Still bullish on all three timeframes (short, intermediate, long), but conviction is fading.
Monday was a weak down day (−0.35% on S&P 500) with poor internals and lack of follow-through strength.
The S&P 500 is showing short-term weakness but no real damage yet. A convincing upward move is needed to restore positive momentum.
Key Event This Week:
Fed meeting Wednesday (Dec 10) at 2 p.m. ET – a 25 bp rate cut is virtually fully priced in.
Risk of “buy the rumor, sell the news.” A “hawkish cut” (cut now but signal slower easing ahead) is the current consensus narrative.
Unusual behavior: 10-year yield is rising into the cut (normally falls on rumor, rises after the fact).
Monday Price Action (S&P 500 cash):
Opened slightly higher, immediately sold off.
Broke below daily pivot (6875), S1 (6854), and briefly below S2 (6837).
Low 6830 level, closed just under 6850 (small late push).
Volume still below average but improving slightly.
What’s Holding Up (Positives):
Still above 20/50/200-day MAs.
Small caps and transports showing relative strength.
Semiconductors and tech outperformed Monday.
Risk-on breadth indicators (high-beta/low-beta, momentum stocks) hitting all-time highs.
Seasonality favors strength in the second half of December.
Longer-term indicators (weekly charts, McClellan Summation Index) remain bullish.
What’s Weakening (Negatives / Yellow Flags):
Growth underperforming value again (key ratios below MAs; risk of death crosses).
Mega-cap / Magnificent-7 leadership fading: Meta and Netflix now showing death crosses (50-day below 200-day).
Three “smart money” flow indicators turned negative over the last few sessions.
Advance-decline oscillator rolling over from extreme positive.
Sentiment dropped, put/call hedging picking up ahead of Fed.
Hindenburg Omen still confirmed (expires around Dec 26 unless new spike).
Unconfirmed Zweig breadth thrust failed to confirm by Friday’s deadline.
Other Notable Observations:
10-year yield climbing fast (4.17%, was under 4% pre-Thanksgiving).
Dollar strengthening (back toward 99 on DXY).
Corporate buybacks slowing sharply (post-earnings blackout effect?).
Wall Street 2026 targets clustering aggressively higher (crowd psychology warning).
Netflix rolling over on Warner Bros Discovery takeover rumors; potential bidding war with Oracle.
Outlook for Tuesday, Dec 9, 2025:
Still in an uptrend but momentum is stalling and trend strength (ADX) is almost nonexistent in short/intermediate term.
Need a convincing rally with volume and growth leadership to flip the short-term picture back to clearly positive ahead of the Fed decision.
Without it, risk leans toward continued chop or a “sell the news” reaction post-Fed.
Conclusion:
Cautiously bullish but lacking conviction – the market is waiting on the Fed and needs growth/mega-cap leadership to reassert itself soon.