Daily Update Podcast for Wednesday December 10, 2025

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Summary of the Daily Market Update for Tuesday, Dec 9, 2025:
Outlook for Wednesday, Dec 10, 2025:
Overall Market Tone:
Very quiet, low-volume day ahead of the widely expected 25 bps Fed rate cut on Wednesday.
S&P 500 closed slightly lower (−0.09%), drifting back below the key 6850 pivot.
Market is in a non-trending/choppy mode on both short- and intermediate-term timeframes (ADX falling).
Background remains technically positive (price above all major moving averages), but conviction is low and sentiment is “wait-and-see.”
Key Focus for Wednesday:
Fed decision (virtually 100% priced in for −25 bps).
The real driver will be the tone: dovish cut → risk-on rally possible; “hawkish cut” (signaling pause or fewer cuts in 2025-2026) → potential sell-off.
The S&P 500 could gyrate sharply after the statement and Powell’s press conference, then either resume the lethargic range or finally break out one way or the other.
Economic Data Snapshot:
JOLTS job openings 7.67 M (stronger than 7.2 M expected, up YoY) → labor market still resilient.
NFIB Small Business Optimism improved to 99.0 (better than expected).
Leading Economic Index still declining, but 6-month growth rate turned “less negative.”
Mixed picture: some signs of economic strength, but inflation (especially Core PCE) remains sticky near 3%, keeping the Fed cautious.
Technical & Breadth Highlights:
Still positive on all three major timeframes (short, intermediate, long), but no trend).
Confirmed Hindenburg Omen still active (bearish caution).
Zweig NYSE Breadth Thrust failed to confirm (off the table).
Short-term indicators (StochRSI, Williams %R, Stochastics) still positive but rolling over.
All three “smart money” indicators now negative (new warning sign).
McClellan Oscillator turned negative on price but still positive on volume → divergence.
VIX creeping higher but below 20s; some hedging evident ahead of the Fed.
Sector & Asset Notes:
Energy led Tuesday despite oil dropping; tech and semiconductors mildly positive.
MAG7 leadership has narrowed — only GOOGL and NVDA beating the S&P YTD.
10-year yield ticked higher to 4.19% (unusual ahead of a cut).
Silver extremely extended (+91% YoY); gold has been going sideways after a similar run.
Outlook & Positioning:
Three equally plausible scenarios for post-Fed: Dovish surprise → rally and possible breakout higher.
Hawkish cut / pause signaled → risk-off move lower.
“Meh” reaction” → back to sleepy, range-bound trading.
Seasonality favorable for mid-December and into 2026.
Background is still constructive (positive momentum indicators, price above all MAs, positive seasonality), but warning signals are growing (smart-money flows, breadth deterioration, Hindenburg Omen).
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is coiled and waiting on the Fed’s language Wednesday afternoon. Expect volatility, but the underlying trend bias remains cautiously bullish unless the Fed sounds significantly more hawkish than expected.