Relative versus absolute risk

1 month ago
20

If you have 1 red ball in jar of 9999 blue balls, your absolute risk of picking a red ball is 1 in a 10000.

If you have 2 red balls in a jar of 9998 blue balls, the absolute risk of picking a red ball is 2 in 10000.

Saying your relative risk of getting a red ball in the second jar has DOUBLED sounds a lot, but it masks the fact the absolute risk is still small.

It is stating something which is technically true, but can give totally the wrong impression.

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