Daily Update Podcast for Friday December 12, 2025

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Daily Market Update for Thursday, Dec 11, 2025:
Outlook for Friday, Dec 12, 2025:)
Market Performance – Thursday, Dec 11:
New all-time closing highs: S&P 500 (+0.21%, closed 6,900), Dow Jones, Russell 2000 small caps, Wilshire 5000, total U.S. stock market ETF.
S&P 600 small-cap index and Value Line Geometric still not there yet.
NASDAQ and NASDAQ-100 closed lower (tech/growth underperformed).
Mega-cap tech (FAANG + NVDA, Broadcom) weak → Oracle earnings poorly received, Broadcom down 4.5% post-earnings.
Value outperformed growth again (ongoing theme).
Cyclicals and defensive sectors (healthcare, staples, real estate, materials) did well.
Volume below average on the new S&P high → mild negative divergence, but off-exchange volume not published.
Choppy session: opened sharply lower, dipped below S1 (6841), recovered in the afternoon with “smart money” buying, closed slightly above 6,900.
Broader Environment:
Fed just cut rates; market pricing in 2 cuts in 2026 (Fed dots suggest only 1).
Economy appears solid: soft-landing narrative intact.
No major economic reports on Friday.
10-year yield fell to 4.14%, dollar weakened → supportive for equities.
Geopolitical risks and massive AI spending remain background concerns but not impacting price action too much yet.
Key Positives:
All three major timeframes (short, intermediate, long) remain bullish.
Sentiment improved back to neutral (46).
Advance-decline line (price + volume) hit new all-time high.
All three “smart money” indicators flipped back to positive.
Breadth, momentum, McClellan Oscillator/Summation Index, TTM Squeeze, most oscillators positive or improving.
Small- and mid-cap indices breaking out, showing relative strength.
Value Line Geometric finally broke its multi-year downtrend line from 2021 peak → broader participation improving.
Lingering Concerns / Yellow Flags:
Growth continues to significantly underperform value (large-cap growth/value ratio weakening, possible death cross coming).
Mega-cap/tech leadership absent; NASDAQ-100 momentum still positive but price action weak.
Confirmed Hindenburg Omen still active (expires Dec 26 unless new spike appears).
Margin debt rising again near highs.
Many short- and intermediate-term indicators now at extreme overbought levels (Stochastics, Balance of Power, TTM Squeeze).
S&P forward P/E 23×, most expensive market globally.
Economic Data Released Thursday:
Initial jobless claims: 236k (rebound from prior week’s 192k anomaly, back to normal range).
Continuing claims: dropped to 1.8M range (positive).
Trade deficit better than expected (−$52.8B vs −$61.7B est.).
Wholesale inventories +0.5% (unexpected build).
Outlook for Friday, Dec 12, 2025:
No U.S. economic reports scheduled.
Seasonality: First half of December historically mixed; strength usually arrives in the second half
Historical edge on Dec 12 since 2002: roughly flat/neutral.
Bias remains mixed-to-positive, leaning cautious because growth/mega-cap participation is still missing.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 is grinding higher on value, cyclicals, and small/mid-caps, but lacks real conviction without growth and mega-cap leadership. Overbought and expensive, but no clear sell signals yet. Trend and momentum remain up. Hindenburg Omen clock is ticking, but everything else still says “uptrend intact.”