Weekly Update for December 15-19, 2025

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Weekly Market Update Summary for Dec 8–12, 2025:
Overall Market Performance:
S&P 500 set an all-time high on Thursday but fell more than 1% on Friday, ending the week down 0.63%.
Mixed index results: Dow +1%, Small caps (Russell 2000) +1.2% and hit all-time high, NASDAQ -1.6%.
Volume above average on the weekly chart despite many daily sessions below average.
Key Theme: Rotation from Growth to Value/Cyclicals:
Ongoing shift away from growth/mega-cap/AI-heavy stocks toward value, cyclicals, and economically sensitive areas (financials, industrials, materials, transports, small caps).
Growth stocks (especially AI-related) underperformed despite strong earnings (e.g., Oracle -7.8%, Broadcom -12.7% for the week).
Small caps benefiting from lower interest rates (cheaper borrowing for growth).
Tech, communication services, and semiconductors saw sharp declines (one semi index -5% on Friday alone).
Fed Meeting Impact:
Fed cut rates 25 bps as expected.
Described as a "hawkish cut": positive near-term (rate reduction) but cautious guidance for 2026 (market expects 2 cuts; Fed signaled possibly only 1).
Fed's SEP revised GDP higher and inflation lower → seen as "best of both worlds," supporting soft landing view.
No immediate recession concerns.
Sector & Index Highlights:
Leaders: Financials, industrials, materials, healthcare, staples (defensive/cyclical mix).
Laggards: Tech, communication services, mega-cap growth.
Broader market strength: NYSE composite hit all-time high; small/mid-caps showing relative strength.
Technical & Sentiment Outlook:
No strong trend yet (ADX flat/low); market still positive on short-, intermediate-, and long-term but lacking conviction.
Internals mostly supportive (advance-decline line hit new highs, new highs greater than new lows).
Sentiment neutral to slightly improving (not extreme bullishness).
VIX remains low (below 20), supportive of equities.
Looking Ahead for the Week of Dec 15–19, 2025:
Busy economic calendar (delayed reports from prior shutdown; e.g., employment report on Tuesday).
Potential continued rotation; watch if value/cyclicals maintain strength or if AI/growth rebound.
Rising 30-year yield cited as pressure on Friday; monitor bond yields.
Seasonally favorable period (second half of December historically strong).
Overall tone: cautiously constructive — market at/near highs, no reversal signals, but watching for confirmation of rotation and any weakness in tech leadership.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/141yDvog8jMW2rT3Sa9w-WSex6Xx70tXA/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!