Deep Dive Update for Monday December 15, 2025

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Summary of the Deep Dive Video Update prepared for Monday, December 15, 2025:
This weekly "deep dive" video reviews lesser-used technical charts and indicators for the stock market (primarily S&P 500) as of Friday's close. The S&P 500 set an all-time high on Thursday (closing high), followed by a down day on Friday (over 1% drop).
Overall tone: cautiously positive, with signs of reducing fear, solid breadth, and potential shift in market leadership (e.g., small caps, transports, value outperforming mega-cap growth).
Key Sentiment & Volatility Indicators:
Ulcer Index: Below its moving average → fear leaving the market.
Long-Term VIX: Remains below 20 (both daily and long-term range) → bullish environment. VIX momentum (MACD), RSI, and VIX/SPX correlation all neutral/low → no extremes, no elevated fear.
VIX vs. MOVE (bond volatility) and VIX/VVIX ratio: Both trending lower → positive for stocks.
Overall: Lower volatility, declining fear since November dip.
Market Breadth & Participation:
Advance-decline lines (S&P, NYSE, various calculations): At or near all-time highs → strong internal health.
Percent of stocks above key moving averages (200-day, 50-day) for S&P, mid-caps, small-caps: All above 50% and rising → good momentum.
Common stocks only (NYSE): New highs on price & volume → healthy.
Broader market holding up better than cap-weighted S&P (mega-caps slowing).
Leadership & Rotation Signs:
Small caps outperforming large caps (Russell 2000 hit all-time high; ratio declining modestly but still in range).
Small caps lead technical rankings (IWM at 92.2), followed by NASDAQ Composite and Dow.
Mega-cap growth (QQQ, NASDAQ 100) lagging (technical score 72.1, drifting lower).
Momentum stocks vs. S&P ratio rolling over recently.
Transports, regional banks, retail improving; possible character change toward economically sensitive sectors.
Trend & Momentum:
Price remains above key moving averages (20, 50, 100, 200-day) and various "rainbow" SMA bundles (short-, intermediate-, long-term) → all trends positive.
Supported at 100-day MA in November; Friday test of 20-day holding.
Bollinger %B, Landry Light, Proper Order, Special K: Mostly positive or neutral.
No extreme readings in most oscillators (e.g., Mass Index, CMB Composite cooling from overbought).
Other Observations:
Growth vs. value, discretionary vs. staples: Mixed/neutral; some pullback but no breakdown.
Sectors: Semiconductors and homebuilders weakened Friday; tech/utilities/biotech under pressure.
Bonds/interest rates: Yields declining (market not worried about inflation); long-term bonds dropped Friday (rates up slightly) → watch for concern.
International: US outperforming; emerging markets weakening vs. developed.
Gold slightly outperforming S&P; Value Line Geometric still below 2021 high (long-term divergence, but testing resistance).
Overall Takeaway:
The S&P 500 remains in an uptrend with strong breadth and declining volatility/fear. Recent all-time highs reflect resilience after November pullback (-5.6%). Emerging signs of rotation: small caps, transports, banks, and value gaining favor while mega-cap growth and momentum slow. No major alarms, but watching for confirmation of character change into 2026 and any renewed pressure on growth leaders or rising rates.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1n5m9M_M3TvJr_B1g4NcU4Nl7dtTSAQgJ/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!