The Wire - December 15, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z December 15, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MORE DETAILS COME TO LIGHT REGARDING WEEKEND TERROR ATTACKS. MORE QUESTIONS REMAIN UNANSWERED FOLLOWING BROWN UNIVERSITY SHOOTING.//

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-International Events-

Australia: More details have come to light regarding the terror attack at Bondi Beach yesterday. What was originally observed to be a total of three attackers has been corrected by police who state that there were only two shooters, a father and son, who conducted the shooting. The shooters have been identified as Naveed Akram, and Sajid Akram.

-HomeFront-

California: This morning the Department of Justice announced the arrest of four members of the Turtle Island Liberation Front organization, a group affiliated with ANTIFA and various other far-left political causes. The arrests were made after the four planned to carry out attacks at ICE facilities in New York.

Analyst Comment: The members of this group posted exceptionally clear threats and calls to violence on social media using their real names. They also organized their terrorism plans openly on social media, without any sort of concern for being caught. Of note, the name Turtle Island Liberation Front refers to a much larger conglomeration of groups, it's not just these four people. These four in particular called themselves the Order of the Black Lotus.

Somewhat interestingly, the FBI actually released drone footage of the group engaging in a range day event, in which the suspects constructed and tested explosive devices that they planned to use during their attacks. This footage shows a total of at least 6x people...not four. So per the FBI's own intelligence product, either these extra people were not arrested, or (more likely) were FBI agents planted in the group. The footage that was released also doesn't show any crime being committed, so it's not entirely clear why this footage was put together for public release.

Rhode Island: The Brown University shooter remains at large as the victims of the shooting have been identified. One victim was identified by her church as Ella Cook, the Vice President of Brown University's Republican Club. The other fatal victim has been identified as Mukhammad Aziz Umurzokov, an Uzbek national. The shooter has also not been identified, however investigators have been observed walking around the shooting site as part of the ongoing investigation.

This afternoon Providence Police released an extremely low-resolution video clip of the suspect, though no further description was provided. After this initial clip was released, private citizens came forward with private doorbell camera footage, which so far is the highest resolution imagery that has been made available.

Crime scene investigation and evidence preservation techniques have also been a challenge. After the long-distance footage of the suspect was released, local journalists geolocated the location where the video was taken and visited the site to discover that the FBI has not fully processed the crime scene. Journalists were able to enter and contaminate the crime scene, and also take photos of the evidence that was in the process of being collected by FBI field agents.

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Analyst Comments: As always, it is often a good idea to wait for solid information to come out regarding a crisis, rather than just speculating on details that are uncertain. However, when a fugitive is on the lamb, more analytical leeway can be granted if it helps catch the shooter, such as the case in Providence.

Regarding the Brown University shooting, so far many of the details of the incident do not add up. The shooter's identity remains unknown, and many other details are extremely conflicting at best, to the point that even journalists are becoming frustrated with the press conferences on the situation offering up very little information. The "person of interest" that was detained by police in the hours after the shooting has been released, even though the Providence Police Chief confirmed that they were confident that this individual was the shooter. This was, however, a rather loose use of the word "confirmed", because as the investigation progressed this individual was assessed to not be the shooter. As of this report the shooter has officially not been identified by Law Enforcement authorities, and the status of the investigation is unclear.

Concerning the very poor video footage that has been released of the suspect, it's not clear why the FBI or Providence Police have not released better imagery from the university itself. Brown University is well known for their surveillance operation on campus. In fact, a student-led initiative to log these cameras back in 2021 revealed that Brown University has over 800 security cameras on campus. Even more pertinently, the exact building where the shooting took place (the Barus and Holley Engineering Building) has security cameras on quite literally every single corner of the building, and covering every single entry/exit. This afternoon Providence Police Chief Oscar Perez stated that they have released all that they have, indicating that none of the cameras inside, outside, or surrounding the Engineering building captured the shooter.

As this is a major sticking point in this case, one detail must be considered which might explain the situation. A few months ago, many initiatives came about to protect students nationwide from ICE raids. Brown University has dedicated major resources to protecting illegal immigrant students from ICE raids, and has published vast quantities of resources helping illegals evade prosecution under immigration law. During the height of these efforts a few months ago, the idea was floated to destroy evidence of illegal activities at various campuses around the US. How far and wide these efforts have become is unknown, it may be just a meme, or it may be something serious. But since time is of the essence, the possibility must be considered that these cameras weren't actually recording anything, just in case ICE wanted to tap into the footage for the deportation of students. Under normal circumstances this sounds like a harebrained theory, however since this situation is not over yet (the shooter is still on the loose), the public needs to know why only Bigfoot-grade footage has been released regarding this suspect, and how the 800+ cameras on campus somehow did not record a mass shooting. Shutting off security cameras to somehow "protect" immigrant students sounds right up the alley of a staffer at Brown University, so we have to consider this possibility.

As a reminder, the Providence Police Chief himself is an immigrant from Colombia, and even conducted parts of today's press briefing on the shooting completely in Spanish. Chief Perez has also become legendary for openly stating that his police forces will not work with federal agencies or share information with ICE. Back in July, Chief Perez was the point of focus for an ICE raid that occurred in his jurisdiction. He held a press conference to reassure the public that his officers were not helping ICE during the raid.

Considering this historical context, it would not be out of the question to surmise that Chief Perez might be personally withholding evidence on this case from federal authorities, because he has already openly confessed to doing so in the past.

Regarding the motive for the attack, nothing is official until the suspect is caught. And in the absence of information being released, speculation can run as wild as one wants: Exam times are often times of heightened stress (and sometimes violence), the winter holiday season is sometimes prone to exacerbate pre-existing mental illnesses, and the world is a dangerous place in general these days, with shootings taking place daily for any variety of reasons. However, in the absence of information, it is always a good idea to make decisions based on the Most-Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA) that is feasible, and then walk assessments back to more reasonable ground once more information comes out. Right now, considering the victims, it would be prudent to assess that this attack was the worst-case scenario of some kind of political targeting, as this theory will have wider-ranging impacts nation wide. Once more information becomes known, this analysis can be updated with more current information, but right now concerns are mounting that this is not a standard mass shooting.

One of the major details that have not been clarified is exactly where the shooting took place inside the Engineering building, and what the classroom was being used for at the exact moment of the shooting. Initial reports indicated that the shooting took place in a classroom, during a final exam. However, when pressed on this by journalists, University personnel have not been able to confirm what was going on inside the classroom at the time of the shooting, and some details point to the shooting taking place at a student-run club meeting instead of an exam, however this remains unclear at the moment.

That's the interesting part about speculation; in the absence of information, we the people have to do the best we can with what we *do* have. And right now, confidence is not particularly high that the shooter will be caught as the fact that a BOLO notice has been posted is proof that the FBI have very few leads to investigate and need the public's help to catch this guy. This is not doing a whole lot to reassure the public either, since it's well known that if a suspect can evade detection for 48 hours, they're probably long gone (before they resurface due to a mistake week/months from now). In any case, the failure to catch a mass shooter within the first couple of days provided critical information to future mass shooters...this case demonstrates how easy it is to get away with this type of crime in what was previously thought to be a heavily surveilled area. This will certainly be a very strong motivator for those who seek to continue violent attacks.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report.
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