Nuclear Stability Watch: 12-19-25

In today’s DEFCON Warning System Strategic Stability Briefing, we examine four global developments from the last 24 hours that do not change the current DEFCON level, but may influence longer-term nuclear risk and escalation dynamics.

Topics covered include:
• Russia’s deployment of new nuclear-capable missile systems to Belarus
• Ukraine’s long-range drone strike on a Russian-linked tanker in the Mediterranean Sea
• An Iran-linked cyberattack targeting Israeli political leadership
• Japan’s reaffirmation of its non-nuclear principles amid internal security debate

This broadcast provides measured analysis, not alarmism, and focuses on how conventional, cyber, and political developments intersect with nuclear stability over time.

The DEFCON Warning System is an independent public intelligence and analysis organisation.

It is not affiliated with any government or military agency.

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