David Rosenberg Warns Markets Are Artificially Propped Up by the S&P 500 Ahead of 2026

Wall Street is cheering record highs—but David Rosenberg says the real economy is already contracting. In this Outlook 2026 special, Rosenberg Research President David Rosenberg joins Kitco News Anchor Jeremy Szafron to dismantle the “soft landing” narrative and expose what he calls a dangerous disconnect between markets and reality.

While the S&P 500 props up headline optimism, Rosenberg presents hard data showing the U.S. economy has slipped into a “silent recession,” masked by government hiring, distorted statistics, and speculative excess in equities. Beneath the surface, he warns, the fundamentals are eroding fast.

Rosenberg introduces the “No Hire Economy,” revealing that hiring rates have collapsed to cycle lows even as layoffs remain muted. He explains why this “no hire, no fire” dynamic is hiding a steady loss of roughly 20,000 private-sector jobs per month, and why the AI-driven growth narrative that carried markets through 2025 has now broken down.

He also issues a stark valuation warning, calling today’s market the 6th Mega Bubble of the past century, with the Shiller PE ratio near 40x. Rosenberg points to telling signals from the smart money: Warren Buffett sitting on a record $400 billion in cash and Jamie Dimon moving into Treasuries, even as retail investors stay fully exposed.

Recorded on December 19, 2025, this is a must-watch macro briefing for anyone trying to understand the risks heading into 2026—and why Rosenberg believes markets are far more fragile than the headlines suggest.

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This Outlook 2026 episode is sponsored by Discovery Silver. Discovery is combining high-quality gold-producing assets in Canada with one of the world’s largest undeveloped silver deposits in Mexico. Learn more at (https://www.discoverysilver.com)

IN THIS EPISODE:
-The "Wealth Illusion": Why the top 10% of earners are the only thing keeping the U.S. economy from a depression.
-The Credit Wall: How rising delinquencies and the refinancing cliff in 2026 will hit small businesses.
-The Japan Pivot: Why the Bank of Japan's rate hike changes the game for global liquidity.
-The Defensive Playbook: Why Rosenberg is long Gold, Energy Infrastructure, and Bonds for 2026.

TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
01:33 Stock Market Dynamics and Consumer Spending
07:30 Valuation Metrics and Market Bubbles: The "6th Mega Bubble"
16:24 Small Business Challenges and Economic Dichotomies
22:51 Private Credit and Refinancing Risks
25:31 Rising Fixed Costs: The "Quiet Tax" on Households
28:15 Labor Market Dynamics and Inflation
28:53 The Wage-Price Spiral vs. Reality
29:49 Consumer Spending and Cost Increases
31:06 Global Liquidity and Japan's Economic Policies
33:54 Understanding Liquidity and Market Sentiment
35:09 Gold and Precious Metals Outlook for 2026
38:57 Energy Infrastructure and Natural Gas Strategies
40:56 Investment Risks and Market Sentiment for 2026

#DavidRosenberg #Recession2026 #WarrenBuffett #StockMarketCrash #Gold #Economy #KitcoNews #Investing #LaborMarket #SP500 #MarketOutlook #WealthTransfer #CentralBanks
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