Deep Dive Update for Monday December 22, 2025

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Summary of the Deep Dive Video Update for Monday, December 22, 2025:
This is a weekly "deep dive" video reviewing lesser-used market charts for deeper insights into current conditions, plus some additional indicators.
Overall Market Tone:
S&P 500 is less than 1% from an all-time high, recently bounced off the 100-day moving average, recaptured the 50-day, and remains in a short-term uptrend.
Market has been choppy and trendless lately, frustrating trend-following strategies; sideways approaches may be more appropriate.
Recent action: Down days Monday/Wednesday, strong rebounds Thursday/Friday (aided by high volume from triple/quadruple witching).
Key Sentiment & Volatility Indicators:
Ulcer Index: Below moving average (lower fear); will return to daily videos if it crosses above.
LT VIX: Below 20 (positive), momentum neutral after brief uptick.
VIX-related ratios (with S&P correlation, VVIX, MOVE): Mostly neutral to slightly positive; stock volatility lower than bonds recently, but a slight uptick in stock/bond volatility ratio seen as mildly negative in context.
No extreme readings in VIX RSI or other short-term volatility gauges.
Breadth & Participation:
Advance-decline lines: Mostly positive; new all-time highs on volume-based and NYSE versions; price-based close but confirming strength.
Percent of S&P stocks above 50-day/200-day MAs: Holding above 50% (positive), though small caps weakened slightly.
Highs/lows indicators: Slightly softening but still positive overall.
Sector Performance:
Small caps (IWM/Russell 2000): Strongest technical scores (89.2); outperforming large caps recently, favored in lower-rate environment and potential Santa Claus rally (seen in 2023–2024, may extend into 2026).
NASDAQ/QQQ: Solid but lagging composite.
Dow, S&P, Mid-caps: Mid-caps weakest (65.3); S&P improved to 71.
Momentum, growth, transports, banks, and retail showing relative strength or improvement.
Semis sideways after decline; homebuilders drifting lower.
Growth/value ratio encouraging (growth outperforming).
Technical Patterns & Trends:
Short-term rainbow: Brief dip below but quickly recovered 20- and 50-period MAs.
Intermediate/long-term rainbows and moving averages: Still upward, holding key support (e.g., 100-day, anchored MAs).
Not overextended vs. major MAs; below 10% above 200-day SMA.
Bollinger Bands, point-and-figure, mass index: No strong signals.
Trend-based systems (Landry Lite, etc.): Mixed/confused in low-trend environment.
Intermarket & Broader Context:
Small vs. large caps: Clear outperformance by small caps in recent ratios.
US vs. international: Range-bound; US still outperforming long-term.
Bonds/yields: No major inflation/rate concerns; correlations with stocks weakening slightly (potential shift?).
Gold/S&P, emerging markets, dollar/yields: Mostly neutral or minor improvements.
Value Line Geometric: Longer-term negative (no new highs since 2021).
Outlook:
Mixed but leaning cautiously positive short-term: Breadth and volume supportive, small caps and growth leading, volatility low. No major red flags yet, but choppiness persists, and some indicators show softening momentum. Watching for continuation of recent rebound or potential stall into 2026.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1d6FdhTtZ7huk78lHRq0zIBn2QOKM-K2k/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!